TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof Team Falcons, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$380,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,655 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Team Falcons44c60,114$26,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,450.1319949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team Falcons52c25,005$12,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,918.917643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Spirit48c23,699$11,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,301.0476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Spirit58c17,799$10,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,456.7339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Spirit79c13,384$10,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.8422468.8%154 W · 70 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Team Falcons50c10,440$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,220.135848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7048…282dbacked Spirit72c10,020$7,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,805.472661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons52c9,376$4,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,871.8964852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Spirit56c7,944$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,490.43,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Team Falcons14c7,702$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9932425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Spirit61c6,803$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.437157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Spirit57c6,674$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,901.771,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Spirit56c5,829$3,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.9388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Falcons36c5,767$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.6349646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons28c5,716$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.12,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Spirit63c5,404$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Spirit56c5,096$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.2517849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit56c4,859$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.831,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Spirit61c4,848$2,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.0840140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Team Falcons52c4,650$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.268032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6dd…40cebacked Spirit50c4,343$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.353778.4%29 W · 8 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Spirit50c4,276$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.7935236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Team Falcons28c4,011$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.261,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Spirit49c3,961$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.5513238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed Team Falcons30c3,560$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.519852%51 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd3…be21backed Spirit49c3,232$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.26580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae8…60f6backed Spirit49c3,142$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Spirit51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Team Falcons46c2,942$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.3623354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Spirit50c2,925$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.810047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Spirit47c2,831$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.5242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons49c2,707$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.2623243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons39c2,603$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.434,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Spirit64c2,576$1,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.9717062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f38…477cbacked Spirit80c2,478$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons51c2,400$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9751252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5758…e2d8backed Spirit76c2,313$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.12944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-36.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Spirit46c2,158$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.5472453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Team Falcons26c2,120$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.8861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Spirit73c2,072$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.4117148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Spirit48c2,018$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.5353545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Spirit47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.9855845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Spirit49c1,991$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.8111133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons51c1,987$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.1346749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Spirit49c1,978$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.9726045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…b8abbacked Team Falcons42c1,872$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.271190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick68cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Falcons53c1,870$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.3575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Falcons32c1,834$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.632,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1b…f0f9backed Spirit58c1,732$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.371747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+89.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Spirit60c1,732$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.6865650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Team Falcons47c1,732$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.3618049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons34c1,723$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.226,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Team Falcons27c1,666$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5220838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Team Falcons53c1,535$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.564139%16 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Spirit69c1,423$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.5219355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Spirit55c1,328$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.921,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Spirit65c1,305$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.4826549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87ce…212abacked Team Falcons31c1,303$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4100%0 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffad…1e0fbacked Team Falcons52c1,302$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Spirit49c1,285$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65523653.4%126 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe80c…f3e6backed Spirit48c1,259$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.7241938.9%163 W · 256 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Team Falcons46c1,241$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.015248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed Spirit67c1,224$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.2413267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Spirit53c1,128$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.0778963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons30c1,103$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.125,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6fd…1128backed Spirit58c1,101$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.922050%10 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c38…91b7backed Team Falcons12c1,087$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.01837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Team Falcons48c1,057$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.613044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed Spirit49c1,057$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.091637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Spirit71c1,038$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9912465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Spirit48c1,014$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.155,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe262…4097backed Team Falcons48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4804537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Falcons51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9925248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…b3d2backed Team Falcons51c999.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.991625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c3…1ab9backed Team Falcons54c994.01$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.751464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ef…c822backed Spirit64c989.25$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7615373.2%112 W · 41 L+18.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons43c988.3$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.9745455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…420cbacked Spirit51c985$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.510153.5%54 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8061…a32bbacked Team Falcons49c974.41$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Spirit50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48519043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Spirit49c969.4$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.3927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Team Falcons29c960$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2410133.7%34 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Team Falcons43c949.94$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.4748437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Team Falcons40c900$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35752834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Team Falcons45c882.98$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3813357.1%76 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Spirit56c881.97$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.771,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed Spirit67c877.86$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.746949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Spirit52c868.65$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.9535449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Falcons34c846.21$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.1328443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Team Falcons3c840$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons43c793.92$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.9881751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Spirit69c788.98$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Team Falcons50c776.24$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38837445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Spirit62c756.53$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.4521460.3%129 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Spirit56c732.15$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1440253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Spirit59c722.46$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.211369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Spirit49c707.66$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.9131451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Spirit52c693.98$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6936837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Falcons51c684.37$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.871,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.