Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe187a29c89b1bff2e19edaaf7f2fce8f09dc49a1b6df87893b45a3a4dee48c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 55c | 29,810$16,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,273.14 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 46c | 23,280$10,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,673.38 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 20,310$8,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,539.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,199.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 19c | 3,901$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.13 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 80c | 2,684$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.8 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 22c | 2,183$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.1 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 1,757$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 50c | 1,652$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.53 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 18c | 1,497$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.55 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 38c | 1,260$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.8 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…d73fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 527$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 61c | 477.62$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.27 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 74c | 461.5$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…d9fdbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Over | 42c | 269.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 20c | 245$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Over | 37c | 235.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 18c | 228.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 29c | 213.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Over | 43c | 188.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 76c | 184$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 54c | 160.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Over | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 36c | 143.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 136.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 20c | 120.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 19c | 120.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 35c | 117.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 22c | 117.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 42c | 117.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Under | 55c | 85.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 81.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Under | 52c | 77.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…6633backed Under | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 33c | 72.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…ce8abacked Over | 27c | 72.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 55c | 68.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 31c | 67.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Over | 40c | 64.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 51c | 55.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 74c | 53.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Over | 23c | 52.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 49c | 50.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Under | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Under | 73c | 35.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Under | 49c | 28.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 46c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…c23dbacked Over | 46c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…5babbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.