TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,682

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,454 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No51c510.2$258 inWon+$252.481,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Yes49c205.59$100 inLost-$10019950.8%101 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…d244backed Yes50c200$100 inLost-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No51c150$77 inWon+$73.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x327a…02ffbacked Yes49c150$74 inLost-$73.54431.8%14 W · 30 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Yes49c130.61$64 inLost-$6423539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No51c103.12$52 inWon+$50.7945657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No47c101.89$48 inWon+$5471449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7606backed Yes53c100$53 inLost-$539848%47 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x575f…7febbacked Yes49c80$39 inLost-$39.24535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No52c74$38 inWon+$35.5221243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No51c50$26 inWon+$24.521672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa8a1…8ac4backed Yes50c37$19 inLost-$18.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d2…0814backed Yes50c27.94$14 inLost-$142222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.