NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f91fe596a1be27ca5793eaf01eefce3109a8be2beb808002964ca36ea7bcd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 57c | 30,625$17,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,077.39 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 27,644$12,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,364.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 11,185$5,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,368.61 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Under | 47c | 10,181$4,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,785.13 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 53c | 6,700$3,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 6,286$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 58c | 5,860$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.2 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Over | 58c | 3,517$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.24 | 478 | 56.5%270 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 2,953$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.73 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 42c | 2,502$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.72 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Under | 48c | 2,142$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Under | 43c | 1,931$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 1,654$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.4 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 43c | 915.22$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.54 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 43c | 848.53$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.87 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 43c | 746$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.78 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 55c | 490.72$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 43c | 294.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Under | 44c | 183$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 114.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…5207backed Over | 57c | 100.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 52c | 98.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…d244backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 58c | 91.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 54c | 78.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fba…e094backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 48c | 63.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Over | 53c | 61.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…ec41backed Over | 56c | 59.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Under | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 45c | 41.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Under | 43c | 39.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked Over | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…24c0backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Under | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 30.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Under | 45c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…5aa6backed Over | 57c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Over | 50c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 54c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…7406backed Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.