NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a3e940cedd43287192f629c76d24bf9aa5fdc0742da8099b1b78d48ef290aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 31,660$15,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,146.47 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 11,489$6,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,049.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…ef56backed Over | 52c | 9,285$4,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,424.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 51c | 6,078$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 51c | 5,792$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 51c | 4,306$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 52c | 3,815$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.92 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 2,912$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 2,787$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 2,548$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.71 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 2,507$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Over | 44c | 1,952$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.08 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Under | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 913.98$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.85 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 43c | 897.66$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.67 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 888.22$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 824.22$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 58c | 775.86$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 50c | 426.35$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.33 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Under | 51c | 375.71$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked Under | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 49c | 345.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 232.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 57c | 178.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Under | 58c | 172.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 135 | 63%85 W · 50 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…0a65backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 43c | 49.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 43c | 29.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…0e06backed Over | 51c | 24.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.