NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3852bdc06e7654631bef3243e19050d8273030867935826b9421c3c1da9abe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 16,915$8,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,624.13 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,194$3,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,636.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 6,250$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.5 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 54c | 3,022$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.98 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 2,984$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.81 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 50c | 1,944$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.62 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 1,841$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 50c | 1,280$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 774.95$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 61c | 774.65$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.34 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 753.5$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 55c | 524.71$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.12 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 40c | 339.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 329.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.78 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 79c | 252.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 51c | 198$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 194.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 51c | 190.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 109.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 79.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 70c | 78.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Over | 50c | 76.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over | 50c | 74.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d0eabacked Under | 45c | 71.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 49c | 58.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 51c | 55.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…e6abbacked Under | 50c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…3976backed Under | 27c | 39.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 34.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 51c | 26.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 49c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…24dfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.