NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e7d54d061620693f6c813fb13468331417d60849ca3ea196195d3530fbab9b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Over | 52c | 32,004$16,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,361.81 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 48c | 22,547$10,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,817.05 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 9,070$4,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.36 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 49c | 8,347$4,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,090 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 6,507$3,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…ef56backed Over | 55c | 5,012$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 48c | 4,976$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.4 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.07 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 1,418$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.04 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,040$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 50c | 880$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 529.42$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.74 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 305.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.67 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 253.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 52c | 223.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 213 | 57.7%123 W · 90 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 195.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Over | 53c | 186.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 49c | 136.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 126.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…4f8ebacked Over | 53c | 125.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…f3eabacked Under | 50c | 117.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 90.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 74c | 72.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…d2a9backed Over | 53c | 62.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…d270backed Over | 53c | 56.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…7a41backed Over | 53c | 50.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Over | 53c | 45.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…5d16backed Over | 53c | 38.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…cd31backed Over | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Under | 49c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 49c | 33.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…415fbacked Over | 53c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…749fbacked Over | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 53c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…7092backed Over | 53c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…0607backed Over | 53c | 21.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 53c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…2048backed Over | 53c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.