NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1079737eac0a313caeeda0e08763e6c15bca5886be11e001bc7493dc051f29b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 43c | 3,938$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Over | 39c | 2,253$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 1,494$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.32 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 34c | 1,379$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.57 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…c5a2backed Over | 46c | 1,077$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd433…05f3backed Under | 54c | 1,011$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 33c | 858.61$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.63 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Over | 56c | 834.5$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…4236backed Under | 54c | 811$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 70c | 788.73$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.73 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…e7e9backed Over | 46c | 725$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…2ca7backed Over | 46c | 725$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8282…9035backed Under | 54c | 721$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…ee25backed Over | 46c | 712$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 690$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…f191backed Over | 46c | 655$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf172…b4f4backed Under | 54c | 628$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…67e3backed Under | 54c | 626$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…e9bbbacked Under | 54c | 478$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 42c | 426.28$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 407.65$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…3ccfbacked Over | 46c | 381$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 128 | 65.6%84 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 50c | 269.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.26 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 44c | 242.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 63c | 234.37$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked Under | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41db…392bbacked Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 197.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 34c | 174.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…985cbacked Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 98.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 35c | 87.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 69c | 79.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 76.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 56c | 71.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 40c | 68.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 69c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 69c | 36.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 67c | 26.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…0a43backed Under | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.