TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,126 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No53c979.92$524 inWon+$456.141,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Yes47c531.91$250 inLost-$25012850%64 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8df…4b48backed Yes45c340$153 inLost-$153.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-61.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb0…c9f8backed Yes52c177.38$92 inLost-$92.241752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x327a…02ffbacked Yes48c167.92$80 inLost-$804431.8%14 W · 30 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No54c100$54 inWon+$46.145657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed No48c91.38$44 inWon+$47.521662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x575f…7febbacked Yes45c88$40 inLost-$39.64535.6%16 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd410…bce5backed No48c86$41 inWon+$44.721675%12 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+60%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfccd…02d6backed Yes43c80$34 inLost-$34.42433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No55c68$37 inWon+$30.690863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes48c52.5$25 inLost-$2515245.4%69 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No52c32.5$17 inWon+$15.627059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes43c30$13 inLost-$12.914855.4%82 W · 66 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.