TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66cc…7135backed Under53c20,000$10,600 inWon+$9,399.9821250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over44c14,255$6,272 inLost-$6,272.1854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under5c5,036$252 inWon+$4,783.856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under53c4,000$2,120 inWon+$1,8801,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over47c3,914$1,840 inLost-$1,839.581,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over47c3,153$1,482 inLost-$1,481.912,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under30c1,747$528 inWon+$1,218.873,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c1,683$788 inLost-$788.253,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,323$620 inLost-$619.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under5c1,168$58 inWon+$1,110.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Over47c1,000$470 inLost-$47062347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Under56c560.65$315 inWon+$245.8227052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under55c395.05$215 inWon+$179.743,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Under58c337.04$195 inWon+$141.5721243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Under56c312.5$175 inWon+$137.513464.2%86 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c309.25$145 inLost-$1454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over43c300$129 inLost-$1291,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under51c268.36$137 inWon+$131.526637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Over49c200.53$98 inLost-$98.265642.9%24 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over47c163.87$77 inLost-$77.0263447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under53c145$77 inWon+$68.1559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over43c105.13$45 inLost-$45.211,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Over47c94.59$45 inLost-$44.531155%171 W · 140 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over53c76.42$40 inLost-$40.53,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c76.42$36 inWon+$40.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under53c64.1$34 inWon+$30.1387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under53c55.84$30 inWon+$26.2480653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over47c47.28$22 inLost-$22.221,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over47c45$21 inLost-$21.1595047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed Over47c43.28$20 inLost-$20.3432952.9%174 W · 155 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over47c37.48$18 inLost-$17.622,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under67c37.39$25 inWon+$12.3857657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over35c31.58$11 inLost-$11.031,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Over47c31.25$15 inLost-$14.6935049.4%173 W · 177 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed Over44c24.57$11 inLost-$10.916541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ee3…bf37backed Under54c21.33$12 inWon+$9.817445.9%34 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.