NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a63833031aa1299eef050544e8678afc4b8b31042dc658e9c725e9d34e32c96

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved: Feb 5, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,058 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	55c	5,454$3,004 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,449.81	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1307…d640backed Thunder	38c	3,666$1,393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,393.07	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Spurs	49c	2,800$1,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,427.79	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder	51c	2,200$1,122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,122	282	41.1%116 W · 166 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder	37c	2,000$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Thunder	51c	1,956$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.63	461	45.6%210 W · 251 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Spurs	63c	1,936$1,219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.18	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Spurs	49c	1,633$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.65	244	50%122 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Spurs	62c	1,600$992 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608	200	57%114 W · 86 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Thunder	45c	1,327$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601.73	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs	54c	1,218$663 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$554.84	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder	50c	889.4$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.14	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder	48c	859.38$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.5	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder	51c	835.76$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.24	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Thunder	46c	599.98$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.99	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Spurs	54c	500$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Spurs	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Thunder	51c	489$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.39	212	43.4%92 W · 120 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs	56c	327.06$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.37	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Spurs	47c	319.15$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.15	84	50%42 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs	48c	297.96$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.94	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Thunder	39c	258.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-9.6wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Spurs	74c	233.65$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.78	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Spurs	49c	204.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Spurs	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Thunder	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Spurs	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	195	48.7%95 W · 100 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Spurs	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder	36c	189.86$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.08	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Spurs	55c	171.36$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.78	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder	51c	164.24$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder	19c	130.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Spurs	49c	127.23$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.89	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder	51c	126$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.26	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder	33c	117.68$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.12	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Thunder	51c	109$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.59	201	49.8%100 W · 101 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Thunder	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6e…6cadbacked Thunder	22c	75.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Thunder	49c	71.86$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.21	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs	66c	61.33$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.69	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Thunder	51c	61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Thunder	44c	51.66$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Thunder	51c	51.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x570b…1263backed Thunder	51c	44.67$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.78	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Spurs	60c	40.76$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.35	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Spurs	66c	40.48$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.73	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	378	52.9%200 W · 178 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x557d…4ffebacked Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb0…eae5backed Thunder	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5635…9415backed Thunder	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Spurs	51c	35.49$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.43	232	49.6%115 W · 117 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9105…1ae2backed Thunder	51c	33.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Spurs	62c	30.84$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.72	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb78c…1961backed Thunder	52c	30.77$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd125…f654backed Thunder	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+3.5wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f9…46f1backed Thunder	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d4…2c19backed Spurs	59c	28.77$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Thunder	51c	28.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.36	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Thunder	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82be…627bbacked Thunder	51c	26.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe73a…ec04backed Thunder	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.22per pick	55cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b83…b79abacked Thunder	51c	23.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dfb…266abacked Thunder	51c	22.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x834d…5500backed Thunder	51c	21.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe64b…3499backed Spurs	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Thunder	52c	19.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Spurs	53c	19.1$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Thunder (-1.5)this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event