NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c841e8b21134b861f0c1b0b5948744ac6aaf08eaf5f8718cddaa17aab3ad35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 6,960$3,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,306.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 53c | 5,326$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.61 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 52c | 5,085$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.85 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 40c | 3,676$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…3eefbacked Over | 47c | 3,590$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…9cbdbacked Under | 55c | 3,570$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…b106backed Over | 50c | 3,453$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…ebefbacked Under | 50c | 3,397$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…5ce3backed Under | 50c | 3,181$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…6c1abacked Over | 50c | 3,125$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8282…9035backed Over | 51c | 2,995$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…e7e9backed Over | 51c | 2,959$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…e9bbbacked Under | 49c | 2,912$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…67e3backed Under | 49c | 2,843$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3c…3ccfbacked Over | 51c | 2,843$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 59c | 2,769$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.14 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd433…05f3backed Under | 49c | 2,741$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…ee25backed Under | 49c | 2,692$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf172…b4f4backed Over | 51c | 2,667$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…2ca7backed Under | 49c | 2,598$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…4236backed Over | 51c | 2,576$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…f191backed Under | 49c | 2,515$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292f…c5a2backed Over | 51c | 2,261$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 54c | 1,365$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.99 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 65c | 1,306$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.97 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…ac40backed Over | 46c | 1,136$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.74 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 1,066$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f849backed Under | 70c | 1,065$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.96 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Under | 51c | 981.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.18 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 934.74$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 53c | 891.42$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.97 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 30c | 647.16$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.84 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 41c | 439.66$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Over | 52c | 384$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…390bbacked Under | 50c | 288$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 59c | 258.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 174.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 146.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Over | 55c | 145.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 142.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 30c | 130.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…535abacked Under | 54c | 106.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Under | 54c | 69.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 66c | 51.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 42.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 40c | 37.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 36.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 32.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Over | 43c | 30.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 70c | 29.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 50c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.