NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d26841cee0d43bb41ad12db60c4339766210507823bc234c45bda9086db2047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 4,696$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 54c | 3,701$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.77 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 3,420$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 1,667$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.04 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,575$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,504$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.77 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,447$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.56 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,381$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…5d81backed Over | 48c | 907.27$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 860.48$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.04 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 835.1$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.51 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 57c | 820.17$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.67 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 811.43$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.59 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Under | 51c | 763.9$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 15c | 721.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.87 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 36c | 716.48$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 48c | 476.06$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.56 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 413.8$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 59c | 292$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 269.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 249.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 62c | 189.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 184.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 17c | 163.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 44c | 155.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 141.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbd…a363backed Over | 38c | 91.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 55c | 87.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…3512backed Under | 68c | 86.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 52c | 78.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 70.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 52c | 65.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 62c | 64.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 64.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over | 49c | 62.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 69c | 61.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 33c | 46.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 59c | 46.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 43c | 43.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 39.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 37.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 34c | 32.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Over | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -6.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Over | 47c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Under | 53c | 24.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Over | 49c | 23.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Over | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Over | 73c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-0.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 226.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.