TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcad4…c108backed Spurs57c26,954$15,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,615.866651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Thunder43c19,311$8,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,378.937240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs79c16,861$13,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,560.362,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs63c15,987$10,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.782,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Spurs54c7,351$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,35176746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thunder35c6,365$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,227.711,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder43c5,966$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565.452,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs73c4,451$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1886,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Thunder46c4,309$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,982.2117162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder45c3,443$1,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.474,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Thunder36c3,424$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.5531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Spurs58c3,289$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.2622453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b3…122ebacked Spurs51c3,197$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Spurs51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.9948054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…3220backed Spurs51c2,976$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3381…3006backed Thunder49c2,956$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e4…2300backed Thunder49c2,925$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8537…950fbacked Spurs51c2,846$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef5…ddb0backed Thunder49c2,819$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d85…ee6fbacked Thunder49c2,772$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69cf…6d14backed Spurs51c2,684$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcac4…aa3dbacked Thunder49c2,654$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a5…cd7dbacked Thunder49c2,574$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d51…ca83backed Spurs51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410a…2643backed Thunder45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1252759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdbc…5a2dbacked Spurs51c2,497$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs80c2,068$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.61,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder47c1,935$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.4628241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Thunder41c1,507$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.281,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spurs51c1,083$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.612,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Thunder48c1,015$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49271449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Thunder35c960$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33617653.4%94 W · 82 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Spurs52c958.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.379556.8%54 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Spurs53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37689050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder47c697.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.534,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Spurs53c600.89$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.897862.8%49 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Thunder24c522.08$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.853839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1752…941dbacked Thunder22c518.18$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Thunder42c514.36$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.3280744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53aa…07fcbacked Thunder49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2459051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Spurs55c483.64$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Thunder47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Thunder49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder47c403.89$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Spurs54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18466645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs76c372.48$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.468,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Spurs71c337$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.551,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb9…2b21backed Thunder43c318.19$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Thunder43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12916539.4%65 W · 100 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1147…da78backed Spurs60c299.72$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.895558.2%32 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs60c278.59$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.093,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Spurs55c227.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2733246.1%153 W · 179 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Spurs58c222.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0121243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Thunder43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Thunder43c192.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7895047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Thunder35c171.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609942.4%42 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs77c154.6$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.73,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Thunder20c135$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Spurs77c110.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0750651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b14…13dcbacked Thunder22c110$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Thunder46c100.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.071,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Thunder51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5111854.2%64 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Thunder49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4921849.5%108 W · 110 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98e…8823backed Spurs55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518456%103 W · 81 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c2c…898abacked Thunder20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Thunder34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.430146.2%139 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Thunder40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7492…6568backed Thunder51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031955.2%176 W · 143 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Thunder38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3554549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Thunder47c85.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Spurs66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7625752.5%135 W · 122 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Spurs53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.471369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder29c66.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.432,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Thunder53c63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3938252.4%200 W · 182 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Thunder47c60.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.912,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Spurs78c60.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5247045.1%212 W · 258 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41db…392bbacked Thunder46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Thunder35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+131.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d06…3b3ebacked Thunder47c53.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Spurs53c50.94$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9427251.1%139 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193e…76ebbacked Thunder50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Thunder47c44.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.821,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Thunder46c43.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2219242.7%82 W · 110 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Thunder47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022556.9%128 W · 97 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3908…20eabacked Thunder48c41.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.043357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Spurs75c39.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6419050.5%96 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1caf…f649backed Spurs54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.044858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Spurs50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.543543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Spurs78c33.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5250948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Spurs54c33.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3354854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Spurs59c31.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0857657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31f7…f22dbacked Thunder51c29.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Spurs58c27.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.661,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Spurs55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2733552.8%177 W · 158 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Thunder48c26.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8739041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea8a…a5bbbacked Thunder49c26.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa487…94f2backed Thunder49c25.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.582055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a4…eeaabacked Thunder49c25.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511636.2%42 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.