College Football · resolved market
Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe331efaa75b9e6a60e20f8b66266bbc3256b3baf48bf1949ab8c32a7d3d458a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Tennessee, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Tennessee | 54c | 8,535$4,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,598.62 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Illinois | 44c | 6,155$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,446.68 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Illinois | 48c | 5,873$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.31 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b7b1backed Illinois | 50c | 5,605$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tennessee | 48c | 5,309$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.16 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Illinois | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tennessee | 52c | 3,247$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.32 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Illinois | 51c | 2,790$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.09 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tennessee | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Tennessee | 49c | 1,590$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.57 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois | 50c | 1,559$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.75 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tennessee | 51c | 1,337$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.89 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Tennessee | 51c | 1,273$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.23 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Illinois | 42c | 1,091$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.31 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Illinois | 75c | 999.9$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.97 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Tennessee | 50c | 996.3$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.15 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Tennessee | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tennessee | 43c | 721$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.79 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8b…c4f6backed Illinois | 50c | 604.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Tennessee | 54c | 579.38$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Tennessee | 39c | 493.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Tennessee | 48c | 440.47$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.43 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Tennessee | 53c | 426.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Illinois | 73c | 343.39$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Illinois | 50c | 288.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tennessee | 52c | 255$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Tennessee | 54c | 183.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Illinois | 47c | 183$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Tennessee | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Tennessee | 48c | 172.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Tennessee | 53c | 164.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Illinois | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…c6abbacked Tennessee | 48c | 138.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Illinois | 49c | 134.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Tennessee | 45c | 106.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Tennessee | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Tennessee | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Tennessee | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Tennessee | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Tennessee | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Illinois | 46c | 99.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…1555backed Tennessee | 49c | 93.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tennessee | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Illinois | 46c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Illinois | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Tennessee | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Illinois | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Tennessee | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Illinois | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2939…e083backed Tennessee | 49c | 64.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…72c3backed Tennessee | 58c | 64.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Illinois | 49c | 64.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Tennessee | 48c | 55.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Tennessee | 47c | 50.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Illinois | 46c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Tennessee | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Tennessee | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Tennessee | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Illinois | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Illinois | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tennessee | 38c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Tennessee | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Illinois | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Tennessee | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Tennessee | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Illinois | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Tennessee | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Tennessee | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Tennessee | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…f282backed Tennessee | 52c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Tennessee | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Tennessee | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Tennessee | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Tennessee | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Illinois | 47c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Tennessee | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Tennessee | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Tennessee | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Tennessee | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Tennessee | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tennessee (-2.5)this page
- O/U 61.5Under won
- Spread: Tennessee (-3.5)Illinois won
- Tennessee vs. IllinoisIllinois won
- Tennessee vs. Illinois: 1H MoneylineIllinois won
- Tennessee vs. Illinois: O/U 62.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.