TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$462,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$546,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d99…5591backed PARIVISION48c18,249$8,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,579.961442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked MOUZ33c17,700$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.712,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7cc…bc84backed MOUZ0c15,900$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed PARIVISION55c12,971$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,774.811643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed MOUZ49c12,770$6,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,266.796634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MOUZ36c12,634$4,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,569.93,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ34c11,608$3,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,895.61,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8375…ba1dbacked PARIVISION35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.966848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ35c9,328$3,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,241.923,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked PARIVISION71c8,836$6,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,542.3711443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MOUZ24c8,277$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.5359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed PARIVISION46c7,017$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.5812649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ38c6,705$2,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.343,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e19…7d36backed MOUZ53c6,514$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.27450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f8…4a8fbacked MOUZ11c6,443$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ56c5,540$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.524,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed PARIVISION52c5,470$2,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625.619455.2%107 W · 87 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed PARIVISION47c4,968$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.1133452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed PARIVISION40c4,807$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,871.674643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked MOUZ53c4,330$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.412038.3%46 W · 74 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8c…d09dbacked PARIVISION50c4,100$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0503246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked MOUZ51c4,080$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.731,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked MOUZ55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20022550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked PARIVISION50c3,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.6265650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked PARIVISION60c3,934$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.71,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ44c3,897$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.5881843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf053…3939backed MOUZ64c3,875$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.565867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed MOUZ56c3,863$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.6846345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ45c3,724$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.752,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked MOUZ60c3,560$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.368342.2%35 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed MOUZ58c3,465$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.312955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed PARIVISION54c3,129$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.4772453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983c…ac7cbacked PARIVISION49c3,044$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.551952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked PARIVISION60c3,000$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.842955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ50c3,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed PARIVISION42c2,960$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.5641850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed PARIVISION49c2,917$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.1910047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed PARIVISION54c2,720$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.1758651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed MOUZ16c2,597$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.4422142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed PARIVISION59c2,410$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.39565.3%62 W · 33 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed PARIVISION48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.332236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ39c2,082$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.476,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed MOUZ36c2,080$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.869340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ60c1,966$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.2444957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PARIVISION36c1,950$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.331,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION58c1,726$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.6637646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…a5b8backed PARIVISION61c1,660$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.6613347.4%63 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ9c1,578$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.921,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ53c1,552$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.6681751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked MOUZ53c1,551$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.2640950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed PARIVISION46c1,542$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.572,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked PARIVISION49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed PARIVISION44c1,474$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.2610753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3e…41c9backed MOUZ6c1,421$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.272528%7 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION66c1,417$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.682,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed MOUZ48c1,400$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6728846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION56c1,368$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.074,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed PARIVISION47c1,237$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.524944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed PARIVISION49c1,219$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.11850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked PARIVISION50c1,175$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.7147738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed MOUZ46c1,079$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010251%52 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ52c1,067$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9947147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked MOUZ35c1,063$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.0452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8912…1712backed PARIVISION47c1,040$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.227735.7%99 W · 178 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ18c1,013$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9421424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed MOUZ50c982.6$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48817247.7%82 W · 90 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed MOUZ65c967.75$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7212353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ43c962.25$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.52,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed MOUZ46c925.84$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.7846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed MOUZ20c914.35$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.871,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed PARIVISION55c914.27$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.882171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed MOUZ52c899.99$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4686829.4%20 W · 48 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed MOUZ26c888$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8817345.7%79 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ56c877.63$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.375,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb0…3c1fbacked MOUZ41c848.45$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.614346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed PARIVISION59c820$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.8917548%84 W · 91 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed MOUZ37c817.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018347.5%87 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked PARIVISION37c811.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.25044%22 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed MOUZ59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47221528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed MOUZ63c789.53$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc48a…bfc6backed MOUZ50c785.71$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ51c773.97$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.3985446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed PARIVISION46c766.43$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3216349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed MOUZ51c745.1$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38015249.3%75 W · 77 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8088…5be1backed MOUZ32c739.4$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed PARIVISION49c725.37$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9410244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked MOUZ43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30114355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb18f…41eabacked MOUZ7c700$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c9…dfeabacked MOUZ49c698.08$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.061747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6dfdbacked PARIVISION76c659.81$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5716853.6%90 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed MOUZ45c650.76$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6910053%53 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee4b…43dcbacked PARIVISION44c638$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.9838051.3%195 W · 185 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76d0…c092backed MOUZ53c611.32$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked PARIVISION53c550$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26013657.4%78 W · 58 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b22…ba7bbacked MOUZ39c542.15$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9110345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed PARIVISION47c531$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4316945%76 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed PARIVISION49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25555845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed PARIVISION47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2658944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed PARIVISION47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.995261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked PARIVISION47c498.1$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9918860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.