TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Suns (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Suns, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$336,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd202…8973backed Suns48c28,121$13,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,498.137650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e5…7a2bbacked Suns50c20,005$10,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,002.486152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Trail Blazers52c19,327$10,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,276.942,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Trail Blazers52c19,135$10,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,102.160351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Suns51c19,030$9,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,707.2342348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Trail Blazers62c15,635$9,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,941.3820758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns48c14,998$7,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.161,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Trail Blazers52c14,942$7,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,172.0235450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Trail Blazers50c14,166$7,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,082.945947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns48c12,004$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,750.391,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers50c11,679$5,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,830.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Suns48c11,055$5,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,306.571,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Trail Blazers52c10,693$5,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,132.5359347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46f…4ad4backed Suns48c10,006$4,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,760.941656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Trail Blazers42c10,000$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.9511757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Suns48c9,400$4,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,511.9919653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Suns50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5006045%27 W · 33 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x129b…9c1bbacked Trail Blazers52c8,836$4,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,241.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Trail Blazers53c8,746$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,110.71728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Trail Blazers50c8,536$4,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,26814946.3%69 W · 80 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Trail Blazers52c7,971$4,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,806.4812056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54b…73cfbacked Suns49c7,919$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa93…5c47backed Trail Blazers52c7,355$3,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked Suns48c6,040$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,921.626543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Suns40c5,881$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.451,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Trail Blazers50c5,655$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.5513750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Trail Blazers52c5,633$2,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.8248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Trail Blazers51c5,621$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.2532653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Suns39c5,419$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.0539842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Suns50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Suns47c4,128$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.2811249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed Suns47c4,120$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.44652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd90…2541backed Suns48c4,016$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.42per pick55cpaid-81.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Suns48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Suns49c3,878$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.027447.3%35 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Trail Blazers54c3,779$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.110553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers52c3,661$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Trail Blazers53c3,634$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.1317247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e8…6854backed Trail Blazers53c3,238$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.915635.7%20 W · 36 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Suns48c3,054$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8220843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Trail Blazers52c3,050$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.9962051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Trail Blazers52c3,017$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.3448845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Suns58c3,016$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.111,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Trail Blazers52c3,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9669149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Trail Blazers45c2,800$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.9911945.4%54 W · 65 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1ce…791cbacked Suns48c2,611$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Trail Blazers52c2,574$1,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.375945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Trail Blazers51c2,561$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.931,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…303dbacked Trail Blazers50c2,462$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.9310556.2%59 W · 46 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns48c2,410$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.951,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns53c2,272$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.813,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x995e…13aebacked Trail Blazers52c2,241$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.79850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+84.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x967b…1375backed Suns47c2,015$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Suns50c2,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9908348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Suns47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Suns55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Suns49c1,978$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.47337%27 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Suns48c1,945$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.7718444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns47c1,916$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.512,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers57c1,841$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.282,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Suns49c1,797$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.453743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Trail Blazers50c1,738$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.122638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Trail Blazers49c1,695$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.433951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Suns58c1,681$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.89945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns45c1,587$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.012,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Trail Blazers53c1,497$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8215753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Trail Blazers54c1,370$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.221653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Suns47c1,236$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.9212542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Suns57c1,220$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.172,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Suns49c1,187$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.644348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5c…0fc2backed Trail Blazers52c1,165$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4110255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Suns47c1,162$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0635942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Trail Blazers53c1,100$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0721152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Trail Blazers50c1,078$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.8419745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Trail Blazers55c1,061$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.6517551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Suns50c1,050$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52544740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Suns48c1,040$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Suns47c1,035$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.0459140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Suns53c1,014$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.421,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Trail Blazers49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Suns49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49047651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Suns49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4908348.2%40 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Suns47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47017740.1%71 W · 106 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa09e…9368backed Suns47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708353%44 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Trail Blazers52c999.96$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.987153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Trail Blazers52c999.22$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.6218343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Suns49c989.18$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.73745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Suns47c975$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.2556043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5c1…a528backed Trail Blazers53c971.8$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.752445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Trail Blazers54c944.7$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2727455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Trail Blazers51c895.92$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.091,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers51c892.09$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.124,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Suns48c843$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.6456843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked Suns46c841.99$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.325839.7%23 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Trail Blazers56c837.52$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.9590650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Suns49c816.05$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.396333.3%21 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Trail Blazers53c799.99$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.9984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf1…5831backed Suns49c791.35$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.76875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4e0…ffbebacked Trail Blazers63c776.03$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.133246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.