TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$474,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $474,752 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a25…3c70backed Natus Vincere0c55,675$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.711136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere21c23,602$4,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,918.373,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,799.9776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons66c16,626$10,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.623,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Natus Vincere49c10,445$5,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,141.9212649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Natus Vincere23c10,001$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.0224544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed Team Falcons56c9,907$5,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.142860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked Team Falcons60c8,362$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,362.156048.3%29 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Natus Vincere31c7,426$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.8536245.3%164 W · 198 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed Team Falcons53c6,270$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.084238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Natus Vincere34c6,262$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1225267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere15c6,002$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9262,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Falcons56c5,711$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.8424846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Falcons55c5,050$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.358050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Natus Vincere11c5,000$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.264944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons68c4,806$3,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.1539248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Natus Vincere47c4,637$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,164.8425147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Natus Vincere43c3,548$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.1361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons55c3,535$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.6485446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Natus Vincere43c3,150$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.6210550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fe…0956backed Natus Vincere24c3,051$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.810663.2%67 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Natus Vincere22c2,758$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.512352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Falcons56c2,706$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.5575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x135b…2c6dbacked Natus Vincere39c2,491$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.1850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Natus Vincere46c2,179$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Team Falcons56c2,168$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.4116947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b9…0eddbacked Natus Vincere44c2,100$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.814645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Natus Vincere15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Natus Vincere25c1,957$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.541260.9%251 W · 161 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere20c1,903$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.386,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Team Falcons57c1,771$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.938351.8%43 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Natus Vincere14c1,766$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9121939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…03e9backed Natus Vincere23c1,754$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.014122%9 W · 32 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-50.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere35c1,750$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.452,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere34c1,750$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.421,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere22c1,500$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.613,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Falcons54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69016152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere23c1,250$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.994,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Natus Vincere46c1,241$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57124944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Natus Vincere25c1,200$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.4331444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Natus Vincere41c1,200$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.9914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere18c1,134$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.722,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Team Falcons76c1,115$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.557448.6%36 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere47c1,058$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.85,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Team Falcons57c1,030$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.2318049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Natus Vincere35c1,028$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.068938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Falcons55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Natus Vincere42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42011852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons69c988.62$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.871,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Team Falcons56c930.43$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3917761%108 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed Natus Vincere26c916.1$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons79c866.64$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.72,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Team Falcons73c798.11$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.5738552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons73c785.88$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.861,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Team Falcons66c753.13$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.1336555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Natus Vincere19c700$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1341,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere31c670$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.460848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons70c639.89$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.621,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed Natus Vincere33c636.36$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013036.9%48 W · 82 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Natus Vincere30c607.38$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.386716.4%11 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere17c556.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6769624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed Team Falcons56c528.57$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.5733960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed Natus Vincere39c501.11$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.152947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Natus Vincere44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22024134.4%83 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed Natus Vincere15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759723.7%23 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22035242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5664backed Natus Vincere26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308242.7%35 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed Team Falcons79c498.92$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4413267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons74c469.69$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons56c467.86$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.869054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere20c457.73$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Natus Vincere43c440$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.222342.2%94 W · 129 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc38…c3b4backed Natus Vincere27c411.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11033950.7%172 W · 167 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere26c400$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10258651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Natus Vincere25c392.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9680744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Natus Vincere15c390.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9619350.3%97 W · 96 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Team Falcons56c382.14$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1436554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a74…9694backed Team Falcons70c365.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Natus Vincere22c349.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7776546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Natus Vincere22c349.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1811546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed Team Falcons58c342.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.269246.7%43 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere25c341.46$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.751,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Natus Vincere19c337.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6519935.7%71 W · 128 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5818…44a3backed Team Falcons54c335.14$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.166248.4%30 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Natus Vincere45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…4bc0backed Natus Vincere45c333.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-25.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Falcons54c333$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1825651.2%131 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Natus Vincere30c330.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014555.2%80 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Team Falcons64c323.41$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8344743.8%196 W · 251 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Team Falcons76c305.74$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.89848%47 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Natus Vincere26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7850846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere45c299.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9955236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Natus Vincere21c285.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060358.5%353 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Team Falcons77c271$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.947738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Team Falcons78c258.69$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9145162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293a…25aebacked Natus Vincere23c255.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Natus Vincere12c252.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0818426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…f042backed Natus Vincere12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.