TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $436,216 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons59c40,000$23,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,599.9776058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Natus Vincere64c8,958$5,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,211.5757358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere51c7,361$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,597.683,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere42c7,043$2,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,055.123,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab80…ffc0backed Natus Vincere51c6,073$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.892623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb7b…ed88backed Natus Vincere46c5,930$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.242860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf394…cdb1backed Natus Vincere41c4,858$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.796650%33 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Natus Vincere55c4,376$2,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.0721939.7%87 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere58c3,659$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.1339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Team Falcons62c3,240$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Natus Vincere66c3,214$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.6438868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x562b…f85fbacked Team Falcons67c3,197$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.065855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56081843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Falcons55c2,868$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56532548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere56c2,838$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.31,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Team Falcons1c2,696$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9613315.8%21 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere64c2,494$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.3537646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere49c2,435$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.3388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Falcons49c2,432$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.8446949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Natus Vincere41c2,258$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.4814355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere46c2,180$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.361,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Team Falcons7c2,113$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons63c2,100$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.9846749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Team Falcons52c2,051$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.5736245.3%164 W · 198 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Natus Vincere38c2,049$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.2467041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere49c1,879$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.891,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Team Falcons55c1,819$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018049.4%89 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Natus Vincere40c1,810$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.5864552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere51c1,779$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.372,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere54c1,669$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.676,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Natus Vincere45c1,657$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.2280744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f45…d3b8backed Team Falcons62c1,622$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Natus Vincere51c1,553$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.147738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere55c1,500$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.484,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed Team Falcons49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7356245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons62c1,500$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.4611740.2%47 W · 70 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Falcons49c1,438$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Falcons60c1,388$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.878050%40 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere67c1,333$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.475,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Natus Vincere41c1,317$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.0912649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Team Falcons55c1,270$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70016947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere49c1,260$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.623,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Team Falcons61c1,257$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.3422448.7%109 W · 115 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Team Falcons61c1,230$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.35455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Natus Vincere41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.5110251%52 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Team Falcons60c1,185$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.0846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Natus Vincere51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4720838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Team Falcons54c1,150$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.936555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Falcons44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Team Falcons22c1,126$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9927950.2%140 W · 139 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Natus Vincere53c1,082$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.624544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons14c1,057$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.027,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere55c1,026$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.841,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere43c1,007$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.735,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Natus Vincere38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62011852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9012…cb82backed Team Falcons57c1,000$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5732263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Team Falcons59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Natus Vincere41c985.68$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.6817148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Natus Vincere51c955.65$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.2719355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere38c950.98$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.9285446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons55c842.54$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.224,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc061…a297backed Team Falcons14c800.43$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.932147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed Team Falcons63c795.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018943.9%83 W · 106 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Natus Vincere37c776.52$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.2725934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Team Falcons22c772$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.841,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Natus Vincere39c767.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8234156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Natus Vincere30c766.72$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.268938.2%34 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Team Falcons15c733.72$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2547641.6%198 W · 278 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Falcons29c700$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6541716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Team Falcons2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Team Falcons2c699.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Natus Vincere40c690.98$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.5943933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons29c674.14$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.862,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere61c656.24$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25535850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed Team Falcons11c638.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked Team Falcons40c626.94$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.864351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…ce61backed Team Falcons62c624.99$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.258065%52 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Natus Vincere56c606.64$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.7311644.8%52 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Natus Vincere50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30031444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Natus Vincere40c570$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34224944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Team Falcons62c568.74$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6212259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Falcons50c550.06$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Team Falcons53c538.42$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28638552.7%203 W · 182 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa69…6e45backed Team Falcons58c530$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.41947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba0…62aabacked Natus Vincere41c530$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.72850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere56c520.66$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.731,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Team Falcons60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Team Falcons61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30512446.8%58 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24039851.3%204 W · 194 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Natus Vincere39c499.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30532042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Team Falcons21c484.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025941.3%107 W · 152 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Team Falcons61c480$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.419362.2%120 W · 73 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick70cpaid-12.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Team Falcons63c477.2$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7811…6e14backed Team Falcons53c469.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.116442.7%70 W · 94 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Team Falcons56c462.77$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8523057%131 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1854…be98backed Team Falcons58c460$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81fb…74a4backed Natus Vincere41c460$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed Team Falcons55c456.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef66…f839backed Team Falcons46c456.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013036.9%48 W · 82 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Team Falcons18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7258651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.