TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c2,753$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.861,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No57c1,689$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.821,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c1,617$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.923,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes44c1,449$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.0518945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c752.38$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.42,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes41c501.31$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.738,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c408.29$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.754,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c404.76$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.51,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c388$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No55c309.73$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.724,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c301.83$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.465,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c285$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.254,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No57c283.35$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c268.54$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.791,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed No56c249$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.565343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c195.93$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.492,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No55c190$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.153855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c170.91$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No59c167.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0490555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No59c165.25$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0627056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes30c164.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.381,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c162.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.662,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No56c149.75$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c146.83$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.578,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes43c140.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No49c124.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.121,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes43c117.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.821,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c117.29$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.612,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c113.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.791,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes42c111.36$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes41c111.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No56c106.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes36c103.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.759545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4725935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5e…4ccbbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No61c99.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.91,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No55c98.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.661,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked No61c97.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9913545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c85.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes32c75.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes41c74.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.753,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No52c73.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4338860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No55c71.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No48c63.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.621,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c62.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.042,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c60.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.671,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes40c60.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8440535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3c…c6d8backed No69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No53c57.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.71,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No50c55.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5228163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes41c53.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8480130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No62c50.42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1517858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2216148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2213351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2218254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2215345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2210147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x736e…e8c2backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No57c47.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No58c45.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1533746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes41c43.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes62c43.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.081844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes43c43.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.454335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No57c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8558358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes44c40.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7252828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.353,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c34.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.182,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No45c34.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.972,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes42c31.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No61c31.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed No57c30.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.110134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.391,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes48c29.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes50c29.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No55c29.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.322,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2350…a351backed Yes52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154560%27 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes60c28.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1776936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.247738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c27.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.786437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes47c27.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96a2…a1a7backed Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7119662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes44c24.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.884465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.