Lol · resolved market
First Blood in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea45bdfa3b3dbdb1dc0f52f6fd2bb99c8144b8c721069d5b3a76bfc397498e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- T1of T1, FURIA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed FURIA Esports | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed FURIA Esports | 1c | 1,202$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports | 35c | 1,091$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.74 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb8…66fdbacked T1 | 78c | 509.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports | 37c | 340.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked T1 | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 509 | 56.2%286 W · 223 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed FURIA Esports | 36c | 213.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed T1 | 63c | 200.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…91c6backed T1 | 63c | 157.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed T1 | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…ed3bbacked FURIA Esports | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…b7f7backed T1 | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed FURIA Esports | 43c | 74.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…f62cbacked T1 | 64c | 51.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe22d…878fbacked T1 | 64c | 50.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FURIA Esports | 37c | 50.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…983fbacked FURIA Esports | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 428 | 35%150 W · 278 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0410…e499backed T1 | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked T1 | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed T1 | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,251 | 54.1%677 W · 574 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed T1 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 186 | 65.6%122 W · 64 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…ba49backed T1 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1068…b886backed T1 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked T1 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…f700backed T1 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked FURIA Esports | 36c | 30.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…a3d7backed T1 | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed T1 | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…ac61backed T1 | 64c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked T1 | 58c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 182 | 63.7%116 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6681…e267backed T1 | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- First Blood in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?FURIA Esports won
- First Blood in Game 3?FURIA Esports won
- Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)T1 won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 WinnerT1 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.