TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,236,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,331,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,236,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked FURIA Esports24c51,472$12,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,416.51,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed FURIA Esports31c50,000$15,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,587.851741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T173c44,109$32,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,033.9312446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA Esports10c42,426$4,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,080.992,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T170c29,725$20,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,935.016046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed FURIA Esports9c28,111$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.270641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed T164c26,124$16,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,435.3714056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked FURIA Esports9c23,869$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FURIA Esports12c23,333$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.4953750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FURIA Esports6c22,422$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.5447933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FURIA Esports10c19,190$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.748449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed FURIA Esports12c18,279$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.0732650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed T171c14,835$10,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,357.9413761.3%84 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed FURIA Esports18c14,327$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.8789746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed FURIA Esports19c13,501$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.0619041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FURIA Esports6c11,619$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.5632955.6%183 W · 146 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed FURIA Esports23c10,157$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.8515356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T173c10,000$7,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.1192254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked FURIA Esports6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FURIA Esports6c9,464$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.4639851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports8c9,018$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.083,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T169c9,000$6,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.3618132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T179c8,532$6,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.942,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed T179c8,531$6,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.6314360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports24c8,256$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.541,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed FURIA Esports18c8,174$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.2445547.7%217 W · 238 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed FURIA Esports6c7,777$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.8441227.4%113 W · 299 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FURIA Esports26c7,747$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.9387443.1%377 W · 497 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked FURIA Esports7c7,605$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.934448.8%168 W · 176 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA Esports6c7,542$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.941,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports24c7,177$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.71,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3239…8da3backed FURIA Esports31c6,645$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.635442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed FURIA Esports2c6,555$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.552072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FURIA Esports27c6,384$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.871,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked T171c6,000$4,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.991,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed T173c5,970$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,634.8810449%51 W · 53 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked FURIA Esports9c5,819$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.5426344.5%117 W · 146 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed FURIA Esports17c5,190$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.113240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed FURIA Esports7c5,135$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5430947.2%146 W · 163 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked T171c5,110$3,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.4454555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked T180c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0005251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked FURIA Esports8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020252%105 W · 97 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed FURIA Esports6c4,804$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2486136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e7…4f63backed FURIA Esports6c4,802$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.149635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed FURIA Esports9c4,667$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4208949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed FURIA Esports7c4,631$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8228341%116 W · 167 L-15.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed FURIA Esports18c4,299$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.9913450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FURIA Esports9c4,254$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed FURIA Esports5c4,136$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.815829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FURIA Esports16c4,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6402,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed T169c3,966$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.6923141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked FURIA Esports8c3,850$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3085429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed FURIA Esports32c3,575$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.1576639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed FURIA Esports14c3,526$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.6740851.7%211 W · 197 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed FURIA Esports21c3,421$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.5381443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed FURIA Esports7c3,379$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2208334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FURIA Esports28c3,306$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.165544.1%289 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed FURIA Esports7c3,250$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed T178c3,172$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.0321751.2%111 W · 106 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e8…8c49backed FURIA Esports34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201816.7%3 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-70.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed T172c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.3294134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed FURIA Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed FURIA Esports11c2,977$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33818433.7%62 W · 122 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked FURIA Esports32c2,870$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.63641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed FURIA Esports21c2,868$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.145932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked FURIA Esports6c2,774$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1290350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed FURIA Esports6c2,670$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.27042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c0…8d4cbacked T175c2,658$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.182763%17 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked T178c2,653$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.642137.5%158 W · 263 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked T172c2,631$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.0430854.5%168 W · 140 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked FURIA Esports6c2,550$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3668915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed FURIA Esports6c2,426$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5631838.1%121 W · 197 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked FURIA Esports26c2,381$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.6811635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed FURIA Esports6c2,340$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4211446.5%53 W · 61 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports20c2,293$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.9846451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed FURIA Esports30c2,222$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.818538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FURIA Esports19c2,157$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010055%55 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed FURIA Esports6c2,100$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12632045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd487…053ebacked FURIA Esports30c2,075$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.53655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed FURIA Esports27c2,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53041843.8%183 W · 235 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed FURIA Esports6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed FURIA Esports20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40066459.8%397 W · 267 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked FURIA Esports28c2,000$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9217738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed FURIA Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed FURIA Esports16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed FURIA Esports8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed FURIA Esports20c1,889$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9539140.4%158 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed FURIA Esports19c1,876$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3959459.1%351 W · 243 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842c…6674backed T177c1,752$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.4718162.4%113 W · 68 L+21.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed FURIA Esports18c1,700$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2991,06028.5%302 W · 758 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed FURIA Esports8c1,700$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed FURIA Esports26c1,644$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.229467%63 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb65e…431abacked FURIA Esports14c1,525$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014841.2%61 W · 87 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked T166c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.151,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FURIA Esports7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10586649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed T180c1,500$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.597452.5%511 W · 463 L+36.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a9…2c34backed T180c1,500$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30515441.6%64 W · 90 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FURIA Esports18c1,500$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.362,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed T167c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.8713360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04c9…f1fabacked FURIA Esports7c1,476$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3212331.7%39 W · 84 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.