TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of T1, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$932,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,060,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $932,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports7c34,744$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.291,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed FURIA Esports1c29,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.342072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed FURIA Esports3c25,727$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.3369741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports6c25,657$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.322,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked FURIA Esports5c23,484$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.4285742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked FURIA Esports7c21,597$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.7890348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FURIA Esports7c16,135$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.81,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports7c15,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed FURIA Esports7c12,848$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.385728.1%16 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cc…7f8fbacked FURIA Esports8c12,241$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FURIA Esports8c12,222$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.7653750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed FURIA Esports7c10,892$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.4454756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked FURIA Esports2c10,447$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.096297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports5c9,687$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.353,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed FURIA Esports1c9,290$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.947869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FURIA Esports7c9,273$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.1147533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed FURIA Esports8c9,107$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FURIA Esports7c9,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61032555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed FURIA Esports1c8,935$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2415429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FURIA Esports8c8,601$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.747744.2%34 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked FURIA Esports7c8,588$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.9620143.8%88 W · 113 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked FURIA Esports7c8,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56049940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed FURIA Esports5c7,790$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.995932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed FURIA Esports7c7,329$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5133327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed FURIA Esports5c7,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33012943.4%56 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed FURIA Esports8c6,763$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54116547.9%79 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed FURIA Esports5c6,363$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed FURIA Esports7c6,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42039851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed FURIA Esports6c5,985$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.0851146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed FURIA Esports7c5,555$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8540726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked FURIA Esports6c5,189$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.346741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed FURIA Esports4c5,011$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9631644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked FURIA Esports0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde3…e14bbacked FURIA Esports0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510547.6%50 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked FURIA Esports7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports8c4,841$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.0144851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FURIA Esports7c4,200$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29482953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed FURIA Esports7c4,160$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.289943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed FURIA Esports5c4,160$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9744120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed FURIA Esports6c3,999$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9648533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FURIA Esports7c3,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports7c3,428$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.92,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ff…f2bebacked FURIA Esports2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed FURIA Esports8c3,323$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8423332.6%76 W · 157 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed FURIA Esports7c3,240$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.813240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked FURIA Esports7c3,147$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9489050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4e…e08fbacked FURIA Esports1c3,041$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed FURIA Esports8c3,036$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.8719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed FURIA Esports4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12022640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked FURIA Esports7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21017738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed FURIA Esports7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21097427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed FURIA Esports2c3,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.575738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed FURIA Esports3c2,996$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.721175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed FURIA Esports1c2,899$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1268942.5%293 W · 396 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked FURIA Esports1c2,750$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.546650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x51d5…79ddbacked FURIA Esports1c2,717$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1510740.2%43 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed FURIA Esports1c2,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048438%184 W · 300 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FURIA Esports8c2,589$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.922,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8542…9405backed FURIA Esports1c2,545$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4518910.1%19 W · 170 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FURIA Esports6c2,491$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.091,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x29ee…a16fbacked FURIA Esports1c2,442$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.789725.8%25 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed FURIA Esports9c2,092$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3213450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed FURIA Esports8c2,050$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16421440.2%86 W · 128 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed FURIA Esports1c2,028$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.282825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked FURIA Esports9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18034536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed FURIA Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked FURIA Esports7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked FURIA Esports7c1,890$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3167115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FURIA Esports8c1,563$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12575630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked FURIA Esports8c1,560$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.821828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked FURIA Esports7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10586649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134d…b07bbacked FURIA Esports6c1,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010231.4%32 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d67…5f14backed FURIA Esports8c1,461$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.323324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA Esports6c1,381$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.282,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FURIA Esports8c1,308$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.431,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cc…506fbacked FURIA Esports8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked FURIA Esports8c1,209$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9966843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ce…6c4abacked FURIA Esports8c1,188$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0757347.6%273 W · 300 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked FURIA Esports7c1,175$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0611635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fe…5cbfbacked FURIA Esports8c1,110$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.86628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed FURIA Esports8c1,100$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8833736.5%123 W · 214 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04c9…f1fabacked FURIA Esports7c1,088$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1612132.2%39 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed FURIA Esports8c1,030$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.421,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed FURIA Esports8c1,024$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0242735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked FURIA Esports8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8019653.1%104 W · 92 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed FURIA Esports4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50b1…861bbacked FURIA Esports1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233949%166 W · 173 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1a…b6f3backed FURIA Esports8c837.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6711535.7%41 W · 74 L-8.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed FURIA Esports8c824$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9217744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked FURIA Esports8c806$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4823152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked FURIA Esports7c760.03$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.29040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed FURIA Esports7c750$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.540232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x257a…b42abacked FURIA Esports7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018356.8%104 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked FURIA Esports2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FURIA Esports8c683.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.031,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd59e…aa12backed FURIA Esports9c633.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575448.1%26 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed FURIA Esports8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed FURIA Esports8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed FURIA Esports7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212341.5%51 W · 72 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.