NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf00fbfd71e5646dd6864d9f86446bcb5e5e8205be617b6960cf711653d7bed57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Hawks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Hawks | 41c | 2,492$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.9 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 78c | 592.37$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 69c | 527.68$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Heat | 79c | 377.5$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Hawks | 25c | 376.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks | 13c | 364.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hawks | 19c | 224.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Heat | 64c | 172.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks | 18c | 170.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Heat | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Heat | 60c | 160.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Heat | 61c | 151.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…2fa4backed Hawks | 53c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Heat | 58c | 146.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Hawks | 13c | 102.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Heat | 57c | 97.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Heat | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 443 | 47.2%209 W · 234 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Heat | 58c | 77.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Heat | 58c | 77.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Heat | 58c | 77.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Hawks | 23c | 69.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Heat | 61c | 59.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Heat | 72c | 59.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Heat | 58c | 54.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Hawks | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Heat | 57c | 42.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Heat | 60c | 40.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Heat | 59c | 35.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Heat | 59c | 35.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Heat | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Heat | 77c | 29.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Heat | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Heat | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Heat | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Heat | 59c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Heat | 54c | 26.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Hawks | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Hawks | 58c | 25.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Heat | 77c | 25.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Heat | 80c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Heat | 78c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.