TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Hawks, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,263
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,263 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat77c1,301$1,004 inWon+$297.216,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Hawks23c529.16$121 inLost-$121.4279650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Hawks19c332.99$63 inLost-$63.2723549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff6e…21cdbacked Heat73c224.81$164 inWon+$60.573754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Hawks25c158.62$40 inLost-$40.251,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks9c122.9$11 inLost-$11.062,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks20c119.62$24 inLost-$23.811850.8%60 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Hawks30c116.66$35 inLost-$3581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb510…762bbacked Hawks24c63.69$15 inLost-$15.215848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Hawks40c54.75$22 inLost-$21.8649249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks21c52.12$11 inLost-$10.942,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Hawks33c47.99$16 inLost-$15.8421849.5%108 W · 110 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Heat50c39.98$20 inWon+$19.996657.6%38 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00b4…e6c2backed Hawks50c38.81$19 inLost-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Heat58c22.57$13 inWon+$9.4838947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Heat64c21$13 inWon+$7.561,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Heat59c20.11$12 inWon+$8.251,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.