NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696f76a98432cf65507104795eac0a06a201d4ea7904df7ef7ebfc2bffa48206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 14,766$7,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,369.42 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 10,628$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 3,450$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.58 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 3,354$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.2 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 2c | 1,992$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f5…3092backed Over | 52c | 1,987$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 1,806$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.35 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…4b50backed Over | 49c | 1,518$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 1,472$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.79 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Under | 22c | 1,272$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.12 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 51c | 1,165$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.71 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,010$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.33 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 50c | 921.5$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.75 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 50c | 829.65$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.82 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 51c | 754.78$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.84 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 50c | 750.15$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Over | 50c | 651.84$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.92 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 50c | 644.55$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.77 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 517.94$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.7 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 21c | 401.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 50c | 373.36$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.42 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 79c | 316.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Over | 50c | 306.52$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc15…4961backed Under | 50c | 301.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…4587backed Over | 51c | 296.03$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…ea91backed Under | 51c | 270.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef77…f853backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 197.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 136.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 25c | 133.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 132.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 28c | 124.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 185 | 52.4%97 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 52c | 95.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 51c | 82.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 26c | 80.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Under | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Over | 78c | 63.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…217cbacked Over | 51c | 60.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 59.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 49c | 53.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 48.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 34c | 45.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +1,317.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Over | 52c | 43.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Under | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 53c | 36.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +11.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 51c | 28.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…e763backed Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05d…b831backed Under | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…0cccbacked Over | 50c | 27.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 50c | 26.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Under | 56c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Under | 51c | 21.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.