TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c5,180$2,546 inLost-$2,546.51,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…af8bbacked Under48c2,130$1,032 inLost-$1,032.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over50c1,980$1,000 inWon+$980.391,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Over52c1,902$989 inWon+$913.031850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c998$509 inWon+$489.025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over49c708.46$350 inWon+$358.572,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over53c510.8$271 inWon+$240.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under18c507.67$89 inLost-$89.21,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over49c494.59$242 inWon+$252.2461638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over50c212.27$106 inWon+$106.132,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c174.66$93 inWon+$82.0942853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c99.51$52 inWon+$47.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over50c94.37$47 inWon+$47.1952861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over50c80$40 inWon+$401,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over50c70.79$35 inWon+$35.459255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Under17c68.41$12 inLost-$11.6333159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Under48c58.53$28 inLost-$28.11631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over50c52.65$26 inWon+$26.2489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c51.85$25 inWon+$26.52,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Over53c27.21$14 inWon+$12.7911143.2%48 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over52c25.56$13 inWon+$12.391,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.