NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42937266f767e9fed4843b1629c10ff2838aecf194554d11af99996161d95905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 69c | 2,837$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Hawks | 29c | 2,236$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.62 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Hawks | 45c | 1,001$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.45 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat | 56c | 682.08$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.96 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 70c | 524.58$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.38 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 63c | 170.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Hawks | 44c | 145.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Hawks | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 34c | 119.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Hawks | 32c | 108.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…be5bbacked Heat | 77c | 102.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hawks | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Hawks | 42c | 95.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hawks | 40c | 92.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks | 28c | 85.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Hawks | 29c | 66.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hawks | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb510…762bbacked Hawks | 31c | 43.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Heat | 53c | 42.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hawks | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Hawks | 29c | 38.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…113abacked Heat | 60c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b8…ab1fbacked Heat | 75c | 15.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Heat | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.