NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e286e8324d24e4bf1d191d49834e98af2dee34627b9b0e993214acb81a79ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 13,995$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,144.61 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 13,363$5,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,454.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 50c | 2,982$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.93 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 1,747$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.19 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Over | 53c | 1,179$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.62 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 1,029$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Over | 51c | 951.49$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 46c | 916.37$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.11 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 904.26$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Over | 55c | 894.31$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Over | 54c | 789.17$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 51c | 699.37$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.68 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 79c | 625.93$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 583.98$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.51 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 53c | 403.83$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 47c | 383.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 42c | 349.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Under | 46c | 209.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 20c | 202.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 58c | 191.26$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 23c | 190.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 74c | 185.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 179.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 21c | 170.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 48c | 169.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 127.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 53c | 119.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Over | 46c | 99.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 46c | 98.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 96.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 46c | 94.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 53c | 80.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 47c | 76.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 57c | 68.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 253 | 60.1%152 W · 101 L | +26.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 61.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Over | 37c | 61.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…16e6backed Over | 52c | 59.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 51c | 56.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Under | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 54c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked Over | 49c | 29.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Over | 77c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 50c | 29.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Over | 46c | 25.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 51c | 23.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Under | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.