NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51be7d80e0c5f58993f88d07c972c310507aac9f6892ff3751943a1898f59ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 2,376$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Over | 50c | 1,709$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.5 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 51c | 1,582$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 1,511$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.7 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 1,069$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.93 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Under | 50c | 1,019$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.25 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 54c | 925.92$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 40c | 720.1$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.41 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Over | 50c | 462$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 29c | 408.93$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 391.42$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 52c | 378.77$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 315$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 6c | 288.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Under | 50c | 281.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 198.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 50c | 126.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 25c | 107.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 48c | 100.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 67c | 85.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…3f22backed Over | 51c | 66.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 65.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 53c | 41.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked Over | 47c | 38.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…78a2backed Over | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 28.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 46c | 27.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Over | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.