NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04ab212c4c01d8206f2f61201ac0825e0cccc60b1092bc77e944c565d5888bb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Hawks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Hawks | 27c | 4,638$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.01 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Heat | 70c | 2,804$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.16 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 68c | 1,693$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Heat | 78c | 1,634$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.44 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed Hawks | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…7768backed Hawks | 33c | 996.59$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.71 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Hawks | 25c | 980.18$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Heat | 62c | 920.61$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Heat | 78c | 380$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Heat | 75c | 349$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Heat | 55c | 301.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 68c | 299.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Hawks | 34c | 283.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Hawks | 25c | 194.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Heat | 55c | 178.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hawks | 15c | 175.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Hawks | 22c | 131.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Hawks | 23c | 111.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Hawks | 25c | 103.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Heat | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Heat | 69c | 87.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Hawks | 25c | 82.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Heat | 59c | 78.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Heat | 70c | 70.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Hawks | 26c | 69.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Hawks | 16c | 67.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Hawks | 18c | 67.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Hawks | 18c | 67.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Heat | 50c | 62.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Hawks | 22c | 60.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Heat | 62c | 59.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -12.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Hawks | 22c | 59.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Hawks | 22c | 57.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Hawks | 22c | 55.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Hawks | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Hawks | 32c | 52.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Heat | 69c | 51.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Hawks | 22c | 49.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Hawks | 22c | 49.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Hawks | 22c | 49.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Hawks | 22c | 47.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Heat | 62c | 46.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Hawks | 50c | 39.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Hawks | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Heat | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Hawks | 35c | 36.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Heat | 74c | 34.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…4776backed Heat | 74c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Hawks | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Heat | 65c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Heat | 62c | 19.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Heat | 70c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Heat | 74c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.