TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Heatof Hawks, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,893 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c1b…7768backed Hawks35c2,648$927 inLost-$927.127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Heat67c2,500$1,675 inWon+$82579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hawks21c1,060$227 inLost-$226.741,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat65c911.45$591 inWon+$320.133,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Hawks23c445.47$103 inLost-$103.111,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Heat67c412.08$276 inWon+$135.9968838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Hawks24c251.54$61 inLost-$61.4381349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6e…21cdbacked Heat48c220.44$106 inWon+$114.633754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks24c197.04$48 inLost-$47.7311850.8%60 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Heat65c195.74$128 inWon+$67.7911143.2%48 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Heat75c122.02$91 inWon+$30.720762.3%129 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb510…762bbacked Heat73c83.54$61 inWon+$22.825848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Heat71c72$51 inWon+$20.5639041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Heat48c50.96$24 inWon+$26.555751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Heat48c48.48$23 inWon+$25.217248.6%35 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Heat70c42.01$29 inWon+$12.71,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Heat54c32.17$17 inWon+$14.86657.6%38 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Heat67c30$20 inWon+$9.980440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f6c…df05backed Heat79c29.62$23 inWon+$6.227256.9%41 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Hawks46c28.14$13 inLost-$12.956636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Heat71c19.21$14 inWon+$5.581,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.