NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78fa423194717f068d024f4d7316ae459bc20faeb1d3919e56977626332ad2c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Hawks | 47c | 51,703$24,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,202.19 | 365 | 49.6%181 W · 184 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Heat | 53c | 37,882$20,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,804.61 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks | 48c | 13,440$6,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,484.19 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Heat | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Heat | 51c | 9,516$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 55c | 3,998$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 53c | 3,965$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.56 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Hawks | 11c | 1,747$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.31 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Hawks | 29c | 1,483$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.05 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Heat | 71c | 1,457$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.57 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1a…e54ebacked Heat | 56c | 1,391$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.98 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Heat | 55c | 1,238$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.26 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Heat | 53c | 1,200$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…bac1backed Heat | 51c | 820.25$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.92 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Hawks | 44c | 600$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Heat | 51c | 530.4$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Hawks | 46c | 420.7$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Heat | 58c | 349.82$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Hawks | 47c | 309$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat | 59c | 292.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…8278backed Hawks | 47c | 233$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Heat | 64c | 217.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 53c | 200.59$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Hawks | 44c | 185.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Heat | 53c | 185$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Heat | 53c | 179.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Heat | 55c | 177.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Hawks | 47c | 164.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Heat | 55c | 127.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Hawks | 16c | 118.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…7ebebacked Heat | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Heat | 55c | 89.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hawks | 45c | 87.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Heat | 53c | 64.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Hawks | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Heat | 55c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…7c07backed Hawks | 51c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Heat | 55c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Heat | 53c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heat | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hawks | 42c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…6d92backed Heat | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Heat | 51c | 28.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…e2e5backed Heat | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Heat | 55c | 25.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Heat | 54c | 22.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Hawks vs. HeatHeat won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 248.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-15.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-19.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.