TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks50c21,092$10,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,517.594,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks50c15,805$7,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,832.151,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd69d…fe68backed Hawks0c13,443$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.447316.4%12 W · 61 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+1,317.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Heat53c12,890$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,087.2117055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat49c10,613$5,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,406.571,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat51c9,971$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,885.811,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94c5…56a7backed Hawks48c7,654$3,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.13450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat51c5,931$3,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.2760351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Heat52c5,910$3,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.7520744.9%93 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks48c4,930$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.344,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Hawks47c4,187$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.8127546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Heat46c4,158$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.2272241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Hawks47c2,060$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.229848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Heat48c1,562$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.2257950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hawks48c1,559$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.162,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hawks39c1,535$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6370147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Heat52c1,457$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.2646145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Heat52c1,425$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.1332351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Heat52c1,425$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.1390650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Hawks47c1,236$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.9265349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Heat54c1,199$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.639447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Hawks52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Hawks48c981.39$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.0731643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Hawks48c968.8$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0262948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Hawks39c957.93$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6811639.7%46 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat62c925.87$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.033,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Heat52c816.99$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.1637355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks49c766.24$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.643,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb628…fd2bbacked Heat52c466.92$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1211873.7%87 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat51c398.03$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.031,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Heat53c388.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.711451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5c…0fc2backed Heat52c291.36$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.8510255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat52c286.5$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5227455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Hawks48c256.59$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.941,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Hawks10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hawks48c212.03$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.181,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Heat80c207.81$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.562878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Hawks48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8836248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Hawks49c201.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat55c194.6$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5733360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Heat54c188.46$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6925550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks48c185.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.963,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Hawks52c154.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8649249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Heat53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.522850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Hawks49c148.38$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7110745.8%49 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Heat57c136.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.671,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hawks49c125.21$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.312,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Hawks42c123.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.340750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hawks47c123.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.931,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Hawks41c122.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.752240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Hawks42c114.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.263369.7%23 W · 10 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+43.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ebc…c639backed Hawks42c114.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.261225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5734…698bbacked Heat56c106.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.171060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Hawks48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4466046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183b…7ebebacked Heat48c100.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.481154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf632…02aabacked Hawks21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Heat52c98.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.511,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Heat51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0497049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Heat48c96.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.385356.6%30 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Hawks39c96.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5751753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Hawks43c94.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.749247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Heat53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0938453.4%205 W · 179 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Heat52c91.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9776552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ad…9805backed Hawks53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.422942.8%98 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Hawks44c79.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.141,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Heat54c77.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9759650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Heat47c77.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0585248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Hawks42c77.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2165630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Hawks49c71.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0216450%82 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Heat52c68.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7827646.7%129 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Hawks28c61.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.351,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Hawks49c59.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0851651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Heat52c56.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9830453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Hawks46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Hawks39c51.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat52c49.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8357650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9d…527bbacked Heat52c49.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.539656.3%54 W · 42 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Hawks53c48.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7516951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Heat70c47.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.27382.2%60 W · 13 L+18.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+45.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Heat52c46.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4113551.1%69 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Heat52c46.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0948751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d2…1fbfbacked Hawks45c42.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Heat74c39.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3829665.5%194 W · 102 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Heat53c38.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.161,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c5…5833backed Heat52c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8001…c76fbacked Hawks42c36.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Heat53c36.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2451946.8%243 W · 276 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0e…3a70backed Heat52c35.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0215053.3%80 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaff…eaf6backed Heat52c33.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2212160.3%73 W · 48 L+13.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked Heat52c33.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1419659.7%117 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Heat55c31.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3336350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Heat52c30.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8189048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Hawks49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722044.5%98 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf300…aa7fbacked Hawks54c29.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Heat59c29.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1237848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Heat52c28.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8289850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Heat51c28.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.151,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d66…e2e5backed Heat51c28.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.994645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed Heat52c28.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.696352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8ae5…bb4abacked Heat52c26.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.83988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick51cpaid+75.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.