TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c1,596$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.721,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c1,034$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.81,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c425.62$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c411.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No60c358.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.661,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c321.11$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.619,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes41c302.83$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7360523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c289.94$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No70c289.32$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c267.45$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.255,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes43c206.48$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No46c203.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No51c202.26$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9312046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12071649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No68c198.62$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0658152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes28c161.86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.541,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No52c158.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No60c155$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes45c150$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No59c149.33$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c148.01$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.722,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes50c137.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.264991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c132.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes49c128$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.878245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes36c125.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2535325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes74c108.31$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.186,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes49c103.92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.924,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes49c102.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4714452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.175,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes49c97.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.652,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No61c95.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.019038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes44c92.8$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes49c90$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c88.06$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.174,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No67c84$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.282,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No71c83.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c83.22$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.263,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No68c79.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.791,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes41c79.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.182,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No61c74.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes40c73.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.043,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes40c73.27$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c71.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No67c69.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5319648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes29c68.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8746549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No53c67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.554,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes34c63.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.191,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes47c63.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822250%11 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+56%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No65c58.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.190555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8343…ba81backed No71c56.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick65cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No54c55.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2725258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba86…4354backed No72c55.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c54.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9877555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes49c52.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1515051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0214434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c50.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.512544.8%56 W · 69 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes49c49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9917644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes73c48.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.92,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No57c46.39$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.597,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No53c41.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.845729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Yes52c40.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.533633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No66c40.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes49c40.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4941331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes37c40.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.028348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c39.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.052,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c37.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.761,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No50c36.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes38c36.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No64c36.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No57c31.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c31.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.748,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No43c31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.332,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.316453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No43c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.532,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1283…b348backed Yes47c28.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes77c27.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.223390.9%30 W · 3 L+10.4wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No71c26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.521,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No58c25.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No60c25.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.061,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No40c25.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.