TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$212,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce1f…41a9backed Nationals35c27,577$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,877.294858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Diamondbacks63c24,720$15,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,578.7186751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Nationals36c20,974$7,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,423.327948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Diamondbacks64c17,459$11,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,217.111,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef57…90c1backed Nationals35c11,401$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,391.322544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks64c11,205$7,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,171.151,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Nationals34c10,190$3,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,725.09825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb160…a795backed Diamondbacks66c10,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5324…88f6backed Nationals34c9,999$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nationals49c6,202$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.9469249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Diamondbacks68c5,939$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,038.5212650.8%64 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks61c5,874$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.959,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dcd…165cbacked Nationals34c5,803$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,803.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks47c5,721$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.322,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Nationals47c5,259$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.5816151.6%83 W · 78 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks65c4,721$3,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,061.172,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Diamondbacks26c4,467$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.1979740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Nationals36c3,600$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.686645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks59c3,280$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.651,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Diamondbacks66c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9801,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals58c2,947$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.111,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Diamondbacks66c2,899$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.1776456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Nationals35c2,860$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.952634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Diamondbacks64c2,767$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.6197950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Diamondbacks67c2,593$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.125550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diamondbacks65c2,432$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.5673352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nationals42c2,357$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.576556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Diamondbacks66c2,351$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.91,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Diamondbacks64c2,097$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.0960249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Diamondbacks66c1,993$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.3737446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Diamondbacks52c1,983$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.1940547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Diamondbacks66c1,895$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.699843.9%43 W · 55 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Diamondbacks48c1,685$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.6517927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x98a0…1b3dbacked Diamondbacks63c1,593$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.112941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Nationals79c1,587$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.0531254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Diamondbacks67c1,505$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.3543654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Nationals35c1,475$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.6214951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Nationals35c1,407$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.049947.5%47 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Nationals33c1,317$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.0615949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Nationals71c1,281$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.7717866.3%118 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nationals34c1,233$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.5741643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Nationals63c1,153$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.672330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Nationals60c1,135$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45411357.5%65 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nationals36c1,119$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.9288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…e54bbacked Nationals67c1,061$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.063554.3%19 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nationals34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66020450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Nationals28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7202060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Diamondbacks65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65033349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nationals55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Nationals34c900$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59415543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Nationals36c859.91$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.467451.4%38 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Diamondbacks65c822.2$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.4324553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals35c785.71$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.711,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…7d12backed Nationals34c735.29$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.2918247.8%87 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Nationals34c715.73$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.939550.5%48 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d2…46e6backed Nationals25c692.03$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.7130928.5%88 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks35c638.33$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.581,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Nationals16c618.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.1822312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…085fbacked Nationals34c616.8$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.834434.1%15 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Nationals65c616.15$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1514966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks64c596.15$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.5468656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Diamondbacks73c500$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.862,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…01dabacked Diamondbacks64c500$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32011757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Diamondbacks66c499.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9924250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Nationals32c494$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9214047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Nationals38c457.85$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.851,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Diamondbacks44c449.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd386…1887backed Nationals36c420.47$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4719233.3%64 W · 128 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b8…af7abacked Nationals78c409.49$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.093666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Nationals36c370.26$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.2619849%97 W · 101 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1326…522fbacked Nationals55c348.55$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.72661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed Diamondbacks50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Diamondbacks73c300$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed Diamondbacks67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20114549.7%72 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Nationals34c296.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.417650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Diamondbacks66c291$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3940352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.712,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.712,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f8…6713backed Diamondbacks70c285.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004261.9%26 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c96…abc5backed Nationals18c277.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Diamondbacks54c273.51$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1711036.4%40 W · 70 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a06…1e43backed Diamondbacks38c266.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009920.2%20 W · 79 L-12.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-41.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals38c263.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0539436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Nationals54c251.41$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4117744.1%78 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Diamondbacks67c238$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4650852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b34…7484backed Nationals47c235.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.992356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Diamondbacks67c226$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4265549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Nationals36c221.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.177841%32 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals33c202.62$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2985047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Diamondbacks65c199.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Diamondbacks66c181.82$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Nationals34c181.76$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9623938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks65c161.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.443250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Diamondbacks7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Diamondbacks67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Nationals35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8610552.4%55 W · 50 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb130…6ee2backed Nationals38c135.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2712249.2%60 W · 62 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Nationals34c135.62$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5138245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Nationals77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.873751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.