Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe16b632a73871b8d925aab86818bf7aac988d86dc70590c76572d7a4ddf4e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 4c | 7,900$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed No | 2c | 3,100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 17c | 2,141$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.82 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 5c | 1,673$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 14c | 1,439$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.02 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…de67backed No | 4c | 1,080$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 1,005$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 12c | 800.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.34 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 735$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.52 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 567.7$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 11c | 521$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed No | 44c | 469.4$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 48c | 462.88$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 432.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 60c | 364.51$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 53c | 354.4$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.33 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 38c | 335.81$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 43c | 318.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 310$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 265.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 64c | 251.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked No | 43c | 240.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…045fbacked No | 5c | 224.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 25c | 218.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 198.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 10c | 195.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fb…45b9backed No | 7c | 187.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 42c | 166.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 25c | 165.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 13c | 159.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 12c | 157.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed Yes | 29c | 149.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 51c | 148.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9d…7971backed Yes | 41c | 148.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 140.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 137.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…e628backed No | 78c | 134.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 129.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 18c | 124.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 12c | 123.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 122.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 119.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 116.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 49c | 109.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 18c | 100.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 25c | 100.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Yes | 44c | 98.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 75c | 93.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 89.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 48c | 82.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 55c | 68.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 49c | 63.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 40c | 53.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 27c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6bcebacked Yes | 37c | 44.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 40.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 49c | 40.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 41c | 39.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 68c | 38.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 31c | 37.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…0227backed Yes | 71c | 33.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…c0bfbacked No | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 46c | 30.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 57c | 26.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea73…d49ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…af1ebacked No | 79c | 24.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9af…920abacked Yes | 61c | 24.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 64c | 23.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 58c | 23.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1003…7a79backed Yes | 76c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…ca2dbacked No | 68c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.