Fifa International · resolved market
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5c05c506a1bf539fa3670db6fa2a84d8c15743dc6507b9ad470563461a6bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 1,069$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 68c | 730.81$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 399.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 69c | 328.45$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 80c | 275.27$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 70c | 274$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 36c | 262.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…31aabacked No | 8c | 258.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 20c | 249.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 34c | 199.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 45c | 191$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 68c | 181.62$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 71c | 169$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 29c | 164.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 14c | 161.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 163 | 33.7%55 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 28c | 138.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 69c | 124.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 72c | 119.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 34c | 116.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…5d79backed Yes | 71c | 116.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 94.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 63c | 85.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed No | 36c | 82.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 28c | 80.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 78c | 72.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…dc6abacked Yes | 70c | 71.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 30c | 70.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 67.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed No | 27c | 55.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 50.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…330ebacked No | 24c | 49.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…1283backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 27c | 41.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 47c | 38.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 42c | 31.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 272 | 55.9%152 W · 120 L | +36.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…0034backed Yes | 71c | 23.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.