TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Tempoof Chicago Sky, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$568,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$618,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $568,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Chicago Sky40c267,495$108,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,143.018937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Tempo60c119,148$71,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,700.3423245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Chicago Sky40c100,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0003842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Toronto Tempo59c80,000$47,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,8001250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Toronto Tempo60c68,414$41,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,365.513351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Toronto Tempo60c45,630$27,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,25236154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky22c45,573$10,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,005.4278548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Toronto Tempo63c39,791$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,791.433745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Toronto Tempo59c17,406$10,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,136.4914450.7%73 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Toronto Tempo60c15,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0004766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Chicago Sky2c10,120$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.768228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Sky40c10,046$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Toronto Tempo59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10013950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Toronto Tempo62c6,000$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.983647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Chicago Sky41c4,683$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.774450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky13c4,445$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.0299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Chicago Sky2c4,121$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5421446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky10c4,032$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.031,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky23c3,645$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.051,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked Chicago Sky38c2,994$1,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Tempo59c2,992$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.6446247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky39c2,622$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.5440550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Toronto Tempo63c2,221$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.635100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Chicago Sky37c2,162$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8005044%22 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Toronto Tempo59c1,653$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6814763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Chicago Sky6c1,460$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.595538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Chicago Sky38c1,382$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52514942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Toronto Tempo60c1,338$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.4719458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo57c1,187$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2232049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Chicago Sky3c1,036$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21557.3%4 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28fb…5e15backed Chicago Sky39c951.86$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Chicago Sky37c945.94$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago Sky2c920.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.97431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Toronto Tempo62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3044047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Sky2c734$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4115346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago Sky6c700.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.319129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Toronto Tempo62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2669354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky39c691.28$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.7592248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Chicago Sky4c670$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.17568.9%5 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Toronto Tempo54c626.37$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.131947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Chicago Sky9c550.64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.975642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb820…8135backed Toronto Tempo60c550$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Toronto Tempo60c500.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8822967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Chicago Sky43c472.44$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9432743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Chicago Sky3c450$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Chicago Sky39c297.06$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Tempo58c272$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2421150.2%106 W · 105 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…5489backed Chicago Sky8c253.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Chicago Sky41c253.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.844669.6%32 W · 14 L+10.7wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+44.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe7e5…6e53backed Toronto Tempo60c251.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.554050%20 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Chicago Sky42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Chicago Sky25c249.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3416745.5%76 W · 91 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Sky42c238.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9964152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Toronto Tempo58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8413249.2%65 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Chicago Sky40c198.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013422.4%30 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Chicago Sky6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6213844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky30c168$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1385158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Sky38c154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5216450%82 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8778…fe54backed Toronto Tempo60c152.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.161855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Chicago Sky39c133.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1413256.1%74 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Toronto Tempo60c133.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3313850.7%70 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb90…c03dbacked Chicago Sky41c127.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…d590backed Toronto Tempo61c127.67$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Chicago Sky38c126.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.225042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Sky14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9631847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Tempo68c118$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.634753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Toronto Tempo62c112.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.98061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Chicago Sky46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Tempo63c107.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4041147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Chicago Sky38c103.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.284967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Sky40c100.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4828447.9%136 W · 148 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3f…1120backed Chicago Sky19c100.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Chicago Sky46c100.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2330649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed Toronto Tempo59c98.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Toronto Tempo63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.61662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Sky29c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2934918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Toronto Tempo60c73.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Chicago Sky41c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.487759.7%46 W · 31 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x11a1…8597backed Toronto Tempo72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.444463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c58…79f7backed Toronto Tempo60c68.72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.492466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83f9…d399backed Toronto Tempo72c63.89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.892975.9%22 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Toronto Tempo57c61.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.899146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf182…112bbacked Toronto Tempo67c58.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.212133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Chicago Sky46c56.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.132948.6%160 W · 169 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed Toronto Tempo60c55.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.228550.6%43 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0811…1870backed Chicago Sky46c54.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Tempo60c48.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4913649.3%67 W · 69 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x831f…ee61backed Chicago Sky22c46.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2a7…68aabacked Chicago Sky40c45.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.091030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Chicago Sky46c44.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.554850%24 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Toronto Tempo57c43.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.895855.2%32 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe437…72c7backed Chicago Sky41c43.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0e…8177backed Toronto Tempo59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Toronto Tempo61c40.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Chicago Sky32c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3961042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f3…90f2backed Chicago Sky39c37.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1788…aa80backed Toronto Tempo57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.092181%17 W · 4 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick55cpaid+43.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8964…427abacked Chicago Sky46c34.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed Chicago Sky46c33.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.414346.5%20 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.