TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x548a…e58a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
26
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+206.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilarbacked Gianluca Cadenasso · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$323.07
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Anastasia Potapova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+550.4%+$6,770
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovicbacked Valentin Royer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.54
Vicenza: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Remy Bertolabacked Manoj Dhamne Manas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Irem Kurtbacked Alana Subasic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.15
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paulbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$871Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$870.73
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machacbacked Cameron Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$598Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$281.55
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,481Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$600.15
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Valentin Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.19
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stagebacked Phantom · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.17
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,250Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$750
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffsbacked Fire Flux Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.95
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Clutchain (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stagebacked TNC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.28
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsbacked RUSTEC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$157.4
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsbacked 9INE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$816Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$815.86
All 7 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifierbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$9.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.