TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Novak Djokovicof Valentin Royer, Novak Djokovic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$856,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$931,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $856,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa080…234fbacked Valentin Royer12c60,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2002147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Valentin Royer3c49,379$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.318,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Valentin Royer1c25,526$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.521,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Valentin Royer12c19,827$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.2613843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Valentin Royer12c18,068$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.653,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Valentin Royer11c13,390$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.3727431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Valentin Royer7c13,021$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.7424841.5%103 W · 145 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Valentin Royer1c11,761$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5eb…93bfbacked Valentin Royer14c11,508$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.458030%24 W · 56 L-7.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Valentin Royer8c10,908$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.91,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Valentin Royer5c10,100$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.4247728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…1eb0backed Valentin Royer1c10,022$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.041520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Valentin Royer13c9,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.9915832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…4a50backed Valentin Royer13c8,442$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Valentin Royer4c8,208$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.564,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Valentin Royer5c8,156$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.963,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Valentin Royer1c7,543$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9918932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4058…49d2backed Valentin Royer8c6,611$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.722850%14 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Valentin Royer12c6,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72093055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…48d7backed Valentin Royer12c5,875$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Valentin Royer8c5,652$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.111,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Valentin Royer8c5,618$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.135951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc9…ec4bbacked Valentin Royer3c5,489$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906011.7%7 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+84.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8005…16eabacked Valentin Royer9c5,483$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.381258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick36cpaid+60%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Valentin Royer3c5,216$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505425.9%14 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Valentin Royer11c5,000$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.9233442.5%142 W · 192 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Valentin Royer14c4,591$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.638350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f5…09ddbacked Valentin Royer2c4,177$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.387811.5%9 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Valentin Royer1c4,107$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.637037.1%26 W · 44 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc0c…218abacked Valentin Royer12c4,011$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.8654138.1%206 W · 335 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Valentin Royer12c4,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49024643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Valentin Royer4c3,916$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.022,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Valentin Royer3c3,613$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.432,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Valentin Royer7c3,530$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.675,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb911…7c31backed Valentin Royer12c3,453$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4154916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…e58abacked Valentin Royer2c3,294$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.541050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+206.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Valentin Royer12c3,075$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.6218315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Valentin Royer11c3,050$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.491,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94fd…7fefbacked Valentin Royer13c2,771$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.035644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Valentin Royer2c2,569$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2870729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Valentin Royer7c2,561$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2821524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Valentin Royer7c2,540$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4856827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeff…78f8backed Valentin Royer4c2,474$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6143647.2%206 W · 230 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Valentin Royer9c2,349$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Valentin Royer13c2,309$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Valentin Royer1c2,290$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2752739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Valentin Royer10c2,233$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.341,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…0cafbacked Valentin Royer11c2,121$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.022010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-3.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Valentin Royer4c2,102$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7566452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Valentin Royer2c2,077$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.42,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Valentin Royer13c2,054$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.9742839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…0d0fbacked Valentin Royer3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Valentin Royer12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24057842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Valentin Royer5c1,971$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9627836.7%102 W · 176 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Valentin Royer2c1,970$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8385624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Valentin Royer5c1,848$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2918740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0100…9babbacked Valentin Royer6c1,622$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100580%4 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick29cpaid+192.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb9b…8aedbacked Valentin Royer12c1,614$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.643348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Valentin Royer5c1,491$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708725.3%22 W · 65 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+54%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Valentin Royer12c1,250$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2737421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Valentin Royer8c1,201$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.15,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked Valentin Royer1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Valentin Royer13c1,194$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4353843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac4…0f3bbacked Valentin Royer13c1,154$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507032.9%23 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Valentin Royer3c1,070$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0219626%51 W · 145 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Valentin Royer3c1,045$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.025213.5%7 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-65.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Valentin Royer12c1,003$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.372,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Valentin Royer10c1,000$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9845850.7%232 W · 226 L-1.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5b…7650backed Valentin Royer7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709544.2%42 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Valentin Royer12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Valentin Royer12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Valentin Royer14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14024840.7%101 W · 147 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Valentin Royer4c999.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd1d…69d0backed Valentin Royer12c943.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c9…6da7backed Valentin Royer13c916.67$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Valentin Royer10c913.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.215532.9%51 W · 104 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Valentin Royer11c846.34$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.137540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Valentin Royer5c825.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7355243.3%239 W · 313 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Valentin Royer3c814.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86619.7%13 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff1…44e9backed Valentin Royer5c812.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.311520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Valentin Royer2c804$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0221317.4%37 W · 176 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Valentin Royer12c800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9614835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed Valentin Royer12c799.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.414039.3%55 W · 85 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46fb…8eaebacked Valentin Royer12c793.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.215437%20 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886f…5e20backed Valentin Royer14c783.31$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Valentin Royer2c761.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.762,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Valentin Royer8c752.48$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8992145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Valentin Royer2c643.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc85…85a5backed Valentin Royer4c626.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Valentin Royer13c623$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9911952.1%62 W · 57 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3972…0a77backed Valentin Royer7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4696…e741backed Valentin Royer7c550$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Valentin Royer9c549.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.474743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Valentin Royer8c537.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x692c…aadebacked Valentin Royer2c527.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105248.1%25 W · 27 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60e2…007cbacked Valentin Royer6c500.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Valentin Royer2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031436.9%116 W · 198 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Valentin Royer5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.56127.9%17 W · 44 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe8b…5e62backed Valentin Royer10c485$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9723932.6%78 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…44b8backed Valentin Royer12c481.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606225.8%16 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+113.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.