TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5526…b553

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
22
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.2
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$39.6
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$53.3
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+185.7%+$812.5
Spurs vs. Pistonsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+112.8%+$222.6
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+35.1%+$200.2
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+122.2%+$159.5
Mavericks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+75.4%+$17.2
76ers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$276
Rockets vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$228
All 13 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Lightningbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.8
Flames vs. Capitalsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Jets vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$200
Wild vs. Oilersbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$84.8
Avalanche vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$129
All 5 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked OKSavingsBank BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$47.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. New Hampshire Wildcatsbacked Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$64.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.