NFL · resolved market
Polymarket Parlay: NFL Week 3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019dba93960e72b0055a110e4c60791bbdf6eb73924ee6431721f11439c7cc21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 44c | 7,952$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.85 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 54c | 3,393$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.87 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 75c | 2,758$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.08 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 48c | 2,681$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.12 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b8…6feebacked No | 41c | 2,123$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 8c | 1,992$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 22c | 1,751$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.44 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 74c | 1,441$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.24 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 16c | 1,229$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.01 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 67c | 1,194$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…8f5fbacked No | 74c | 841.5$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No | 8c | 817.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 76c | 757.23$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.08 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed No | 69c | 710.66$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 484.75$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.78 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 31c | 463.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.43 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 27c | 368.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.52 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed No | 74c | 335$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 26c | 333.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.43 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 233$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 25c | 222.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.42 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 78c | 192.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…704cbacked Yes | 28c | 180.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed No | 74c | 178.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 62c | 150.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Yes | 30c | 143.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 73c | 137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 50c | 127.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 72c | 121.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…ad9dbacked Yes | 59c | 115.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked Yes | 26c | 113.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd86…c51fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4b…d83abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed Yes | 26c | 99.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Yes | 27c | 90.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 27c | 77.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed No | 77c | 66.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 29c | 65.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…3282backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked No | 73c | 39.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked No | 43c | 28.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e0e0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed No | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.