Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03719576ca7cdb7a66d8c7b29873271cd10e0153f6f244078c1960d72593605c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.39 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 51c | 944.5$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 489.71$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 480.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 470.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 356.48$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 349.7$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 38c | 331$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.59 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 290.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 279.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 267.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 79c | 256.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 235$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 226.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 219.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 210.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 203$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 185.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 183.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 44c | 166.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 161.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 63c | 161.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 63c | 159.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 64c | 116.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 45c | 110.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…484cbacked No | 44c | 109.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 97.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 91.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 87.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 36c | 84.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 56c | 79.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…5bf7backed Yes | 77c | 71.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 58c | 68.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 65.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 69c | 57.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 57.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 31c | 57.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 54c | 55.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 53.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 53.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 52.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 27c | 52.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 50.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 46.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 45.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 44.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 49c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 35c | 40.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 47c | 38.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 37.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…490cbacked Yes | 67c | 37.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 78c | 36.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 36c | 35.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 33.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 33.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 67c | 31.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 37c | 28.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 55c | 28.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 37c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 62c | 27.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked Yes | 76c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 26.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 58c | 24.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 79c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…358bbacked Yes | 47c | 23.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 22.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 49c | 21.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 51c | 20.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 50c | 20.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.