TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes26c1,652$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.951,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes44c867.53$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8815527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c629.75$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c443.43$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.934,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No63c374.82$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.612,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c290$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c283.81$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.325,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes35c268.06$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes25c238.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1359923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c229.42$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes16c194.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.393,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No64c177.05$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.742,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No76c176.78$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.442,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes9c136.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6917511.4%20 W · 155 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No65c134$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e03…d5f0backed Yes45c132.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c126.04$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.784,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes37c117.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.592536%9 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes20c110.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.022,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c104.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.026,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes14c95.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.691,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes13c88.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5129948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes45c88.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.65028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes15c87.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes44c85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes17c76.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1320133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes15c76.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.512147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes26c68.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed No29c68.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.378537.6%32 W · 53 L+15.1wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+161.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed No78c68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6625261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes22c65.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2811927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No75c65.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No63c64.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.794761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes21c63.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cdc…5bf7backed Yes32c63.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No52c62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0542366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.169,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes41c58.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.971,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No77c58.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No57c56.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2211…7458backed No71c54.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes22c51.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3215040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes23c50.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.525,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.459047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c45.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.174,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c44.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.376,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c44.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.732,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c42.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.472,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No52c38.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.464,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No46c37.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.341,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbce…c781backed Yes30c36.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.813637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f4…d093backed Yes42c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8215032%48 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes45c24.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No60c23.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4247136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No70c22.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.843,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76556.9%37 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafbe…072ebacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72450%12 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7244…2aafbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710665.1%69 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.480962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.87749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5549359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf75…005cbacked No66c17.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.954755.3%26 W · 21 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No70c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2220660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No60c17.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.854178%32 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c8c…f34abacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.71747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d8…5430backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.872360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No77c13.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.