TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Spirit, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$556,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$574,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,898 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Spirit39c246,193$97,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97,130.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Team Falcons72c156,935$112,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,056.611984.2%16 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+36.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf267…e0e1backed Spirit21c116,196$24,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,239.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Team Falcons60c60,288$36,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,115.169861.2%60 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Spirit40c57,068$22,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,677.2721645.4%98 W · 118 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Team Falcons61c46,800$28,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,25211655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Team Falcons71c27,039$19,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,814.84862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+35.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons61c25,641$15,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0009247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Team Falcons61c24,580$14,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,586.354942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Spirit40c18,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20025842.2%109 W · 149 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team Falcons60c12,222$7,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,888.888242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons72c11,052$7,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,088.3628453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Spirit36c9,646$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.091,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Spirit40c8,032$3,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.988042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Team Falcons60c7,500$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0002347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Spirit39c6,069$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.2933043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Falcons60c5,909$3,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.6717148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Team Falcons61c5,700$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22335940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Team Falcons61c5,454$3,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,126.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Falcons60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00046949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Team Falcons60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00067041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Team Falcons62c5,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90018051.1%92 W · 88 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Falcons60c4,688$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.0245848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons61c4,071$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.8560853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Spirit40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Spirit37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.981,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Team Falcons64c3,988$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.27455.4%41 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Team Falcons64c3,888$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Team Falcons61c3,820$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.676546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Spirit32c3,780$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.983,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Team Falcons70c3,708$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.7712153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Team Falcons61c3,600$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40413050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Team Falcons60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4008052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Team Falcons60c3,500$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.824045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Spirit31c3,269$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.161,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Spirit45c2,880$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2964555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Team Falcons64c2,208$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.281758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8156…27c2backed Team Falcons61c2,200$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8583548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd1…ae72backed Team Falcons63c2,084$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.0128852.1%150 W · 138 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Team Falcons59c2,063$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.9828248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Spirit40c1,983$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.2711631.9%37 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Team Falcons60c1,856$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.1713537.8%51 W · 84 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Falcons60c1,853$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.649050%45 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1939…22e8backed Spirit36c1,725$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1611840.7%48 W · 70 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8541…a367backed Spirit40c1,700$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68028344.2%125 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit29c1,658$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.944,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Team Falcons60c1,650$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66020855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Falcons61c1,641$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.3976748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons64c1,641$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.6325261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Team Falcons61c1,640$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.615452.6%81 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Team Falcons61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Team Falcons61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.3410043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Spirit21c1,638$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34024440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Spirit34c1,595$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.81,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdf…e8e4backed Team Falcons65c1,546$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.393366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Spirit40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9924139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed Team Falcons61c1,333$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.793357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Falcons69c1,285$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.2753746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Falcons61c1,274$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.7778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Falcons79c1,245$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.483652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Falcons60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48022056.4%124 W · 96 L+19.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Falcons60c1,164$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.616349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team Falcons60c1,149$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.221846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x442a…f2dfbacked Spirit12c1,125$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.493743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8465…6bbdbacked Spirit40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4009541.1%39 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Team Falcons70c1,000$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30114148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fc…ee34backed Team Falcons61c983.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.612661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Team Falcons61c983.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.6121251.4%109 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Team Falcons63c961.22$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.6535550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Team Falcons67c921.02$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.3947055.7%262 W · 208 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3cd3backed Team Falcons60c919.89$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.9622560.4%136 W · 89 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Falcons61c889.38$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.911,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team Falcons61c845.57$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.7726344.5%117 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Team Falcons60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed Team Falcons61c818.28$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.131668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked Spirit41c815.84$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4719849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Spirit40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32011852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Team Falcons60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32025941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a76…2890backed Team Falcons63c793.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6518254.4%99 W · 83 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Falcons60c777$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.81,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Team Falcons60c769.99$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.743438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Team Falcons60c757.18$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.879341.9%39 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed Spirit5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356521.5%14 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Spirit40c629.98$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1621639.8%86 W · 130 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf239…cbccbacked Team Falcons61c625.7$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.021435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Team Falcons66c603.99$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6660147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a38…82f5backed Spirit16c594.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Team Falcons61c573.77$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.775750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fa…2afebacked Team Falcons64c572.79$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.485060%30 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Team Falcons60c555$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…8745backed Spirit19c529.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e1…d80bbacked Team Falcons59c519.96$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7811846.6%55 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb027…888fbacked Team Falcons61c518.38$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.173351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Team Falcons60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028351.9%147 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed Team Falcons70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15058651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Team Falcons61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Team Falcons61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.87552%39 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Team Falcons72c439.82$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5512328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8401…bc1ebacked Team Falcons80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.