Poker · resolved market
Will Tyler Montoya win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x097e3389e06ea16d1214bc7e1a940c2d99113f4ab22cc7a6a2084aaa9c0b8e1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,275,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,275,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 0c | 546,086$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…a3cdbacked Yes | 0c | 304,492$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f0…afbdbacked Yes | 0c | 274,043$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…55b6backed Yes | 0c | 243,594$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…0979backed Yes | 0c | 243,594$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…c39fbacked Yes | 0c | 61,500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…8459backed Yes | 0c | 61,383$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db4…e447backed Yes | 0c | 61,127$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…f42dbacked Yes | 0c | 60,483$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d17…d60abacked Yes | 0c | 60,307$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…6ae0backed Yes | 0c | 60,075$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…c547backed Yes | 0c | 59,773$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…ee8abacked Yes | 0c | 59,574$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…f1debacked Yes | 0c | 59,403$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…51f2backed Yes | 0c | 59,028$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…ddc5backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…9bb8backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c7…71acbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…6927backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…8762backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…559ebacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…135fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…388ebacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…7d9dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…6102backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…e9c1backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8954backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…688fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…eacfbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…232fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9a…a635backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd75…b2cdbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef8…c904backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d5…f706backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…0274backed Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…e56dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…875fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,698$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…ec16backed Yes | 0c | 42,237$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…4b14backed Yes | 0c | 42,151$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…dd38backed Yes | 0c | 42,098$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…386abacked Yes | 0c | 42,080$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…4b0fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,008$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2e…920abacked Yes | 0c | 41,643$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…8532backed Yes | 0c | 41,613$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…2b79backed Yes | 0c | 41,560$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…7c25backed Yes | 0c | 41,457$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…9b4bbacked Yes | 0c | 41,447$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…f296backed Yes | 0c | 41,250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…19fcbacked Yes | 0c | 41,131$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…e213backed Yes | 0c | 40,879$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…d84bbacked Yes | 0c | 40,826$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf197…2b24backed Yes | 0c | 40,571$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc066…bdbebacked Yes | 0c | 40,504$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…8914backed Yes | 0c | 40,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb172…1699backed Yes | 0c | 40,351$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 0c | 37,751$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9260backed Yes | 0c | 22,404$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed Yes | 0c | 18,940$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…78ebbacked Yes | 0c | 14,253$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 0c | 13,383$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 0c | 11,202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 0c | 6,270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1394…2b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,380$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ed6fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,961$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tyler Montoya win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?this page
- Will "Nick Wright" win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will 3 Coin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Alan Keating win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Andrew Robl win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Brazil God win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Bryce Hall win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Cary Katz win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Charlie Hook win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Chino Rheem win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Chris Moneymaker win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Dan 'Jungleman' Cates win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will David Williams win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Doug Polk win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Dylan Flashner win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Erick Lindgren win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Erik Seidel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Esther Taylor win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Frank Brannan win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Frank Crivello win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Garrett Adelstein win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Hanks win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Igor Kurganov win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Jason Calacanis win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Jasper win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Jesse Lonis win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will John Smith win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Johnnie Vibes win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Jonathan Jaffe win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Josh Arieh win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Justin Gavri win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Justin Young win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Kasey Lyn Mills win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Keith Lehr win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Kevin Pollak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Kristen Foxen win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Liv Boeree win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Maria Konnikova win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Marius Gierse win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Matt Berkey win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Matt Salsberg win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Nacho Barbero win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Phil Galfond win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Ren Lin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Richard Seymour win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Rob 'Boston Rob' Mariano win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Ryan Feldman win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?Yes won
- Will Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Shaun Deeb win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
- Will Stephen Chidwick win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.