TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,027,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,046,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,027,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed PARIVISION34c380,936$130,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130,208.912950.4%65 W · 64 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed MOUZ65c193,300$125,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,654.934465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed PARIVISION23c116,948$27,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,297.6414047.9%67 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed PARIVISION36c65,061$23,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,422.0321353.5%114 W · 99 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed PARIVISION35c61,918$21,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,652.244740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed MOUZ65c43,633$28,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,465.846152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked MOUZ64c30,000$19,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,849.991844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4097…9397backed MOUZ63c22,410$14,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,291.73948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked PARIVISION19c22,183$4,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,259.411,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked MOUZ63c16,666$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,166.4232752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed MOUZ64c16,303$10,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,880.1113345.1%60 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ64c15,155$9,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,385.361,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed PARIVISION36c15,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40010749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed PARIVISION37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,55050254.2%272 W · 230 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed PARIVISION37c14,984$5,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,543.9720947.8%100 W · 109 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed PARIVISION14c13,782$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.518243.9%36 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION5c12,134$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.472,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked MOUZ63c12,000$7,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,44036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed PARIVISION35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50060853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked MOUZ64c9,862$6,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,550.2723846.2%110 W · 128 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ65c9,000$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12089546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ65c8,380$5,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.711,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ65c8,000$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8401,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed MOUZ63c7,611$4,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.951735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MOUZ65c6,107$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.467951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked PARIVISION23c5,500$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.9628340.3%114 W · 169 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked MOUZ71c5,423$3,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.059947.5%47 W · 52 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed MOUZ63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8501729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed MOUZ64c5,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8003852.6%20 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed MOUZ63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85027353.1%145 W · 128 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MOUZ65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.9937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed MOUZ65c5,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed MOUZ64c4,073$2,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.3911638.8%45 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8817…2c2ebacked PARIVISION7c3,630$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2371225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed MOUZ66c3,200$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0887951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed MOUZ64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12525845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed MOUZ63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11030153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION35c3,000$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03597240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ64c2,958$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,064.8732348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed MOUZ79c2,900$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.3612154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed PARIVISION35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019554.9%107 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked PARIVISION37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed PARIVISION9c2,518$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.538925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ65c2,500$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8751,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MOUZ65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70078939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7001,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked PARIVISION36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7208252.4%43 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed MOUZ66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9960848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked MOUZ64c1,665$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.465351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked MOUZ64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.57550.7%38 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…4a30backed MOUZ64c1,529$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.46757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked MOUZ65c1,500$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.51,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed PARIVISION13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19511643.1%50 W · 66 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed PARIVISION34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51059841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7433…c66cbacked PARIVISION20c1,426$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.672166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+50.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked PARIVISION37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50017546.9%82 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked PARIVISION36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46822754.2%123 W · 104 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc865…2f6ebacked PARIVISION34c1,277$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4325927.1%16 W · 43 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54da…3fd2backed PARIVISION4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed PARIVISION37c1,248$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7624349%119 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd88a…a7e4backed MOUZ64c1,222$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.882373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION14c1,196$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3870423.9%168 W · 536 L+2.7wins0.00per pick23cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked MOUZ64c1,094$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.7524358%141 W · 102 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed MOUZ78c1,070$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1282142.5%349 W · 472 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed MOUZ65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35013647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed PARIVISION36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36021360.1%128 W · 85 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed MOUZ65c999.95$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.171,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed PARIVISION6c999.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.961,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked MOUZ63c999$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.631,14649.4%566 W · 580 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed PARIVISION28c969.95$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.895,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed PARIVISION13c922.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3811928.6%34 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked PARIVISION35c900$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31542050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked PARIVISION35c839$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.453135%186 W · 345 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed MOUZ63c810$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.712645.2%57 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed MOUZ63c800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29625345.8%116 W · 137 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa972…9817backed MOUZ65c799.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2805172.5%37 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked PARIVISION36c790.83$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.71,05157.2%601 W · 450 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed MOUZ80c774.9$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.988752.9%46 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed PARIVISION33c759.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.812453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf253…c69dbacked PARIVISION35c742.86$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed PARIVISION37c675.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015632.7%51 W · 105 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe295…d437backed PARIVISION14c674.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.412548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed PARIVISION2c650$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7337…1fafbacked PARIVISION37c647.7$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6519322.3%43 W · 150 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed PARIVISION35c627.29$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1140341.7%168 W · 235 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed MOUZ74c625.96$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7516362%101 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked MOUZ75c610$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.83,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x314c…975fbacked MOUZ66c606.06$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.065971.2%42 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed MOUZ73c600$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1626953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ64c596.81$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8526461%161 W · 103 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed PARIVISION36c560$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.645439.6%180 W · 274 L+1.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed MOUZ74c543.36$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.844,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da2…22b6backed PARIVISION37c541.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4239745.8%182 W · 215 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed MOUZ66c525$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.536054.4%196 W · 164 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed PARIVISION37c514.86$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5d9…4b4bbacked PARIVISION37c501.19$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked PARIVISION26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf84d…8830backed PARIVISION34c499.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.996962.3%43 W · 26 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked MOUZ64c468.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7526155.2%144 W · 117 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ef…df85backed PARIVISION11c461.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.