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MLB · resolved market

Phillies vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Philliesof Phillies, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$655,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe785…e106backed Nationals37c234,555$86,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,009.754854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Phillies63c193,828$122,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,716.3635952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…4908backed Nationals37c175,000$64,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,7502373.9%17 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+30.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Phillies65c56,871$36,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,001.3217156.1%96 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Phillies63c33,800$21,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,50638751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Phillies63c30,000$18,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,10055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Phillies64c26,589$16,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,608.771,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Phillies64c17,727$11,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,464.2245248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies64c17,451$11,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,304.481,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Phillies63c13,000$8,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,8101,15749.2%569 W · 588 L-1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Phillies62c7,601$4,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.741,35950.8%690 W · 669 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Phillies64c7,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,52030255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Phillies64c6,240$3,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.3526056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Phillies71c5,261$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.3954345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37be…c646backed Nationals39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9506450%32 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies64c4,227$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,541.532,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Phillies64c3,559$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.2426355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Phillies75c2,859$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.5238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Phillies55c2,631$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.457324.7%18 W · 55 L-9.8wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-43.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Nationals38c2,456$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.6933845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Phillies61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78099549.9%497 W · 498 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Nationals30c1,999$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.847946.8%37 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals37c1,936$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.3771751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Phillies64c1,868$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.323455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3447…3495backed Nationals36c1,702$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.722650%13 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Phillies65c1,698$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.868042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals19c1,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Nationals20c1,442$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.446258.1%36 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Nationals5c1,250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Nationals10c1,121$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3132754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…2203backed Nationals1c1,051$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4950…0031backed Nationals36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38050843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Phillies60c954.39$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.2116947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Phillies64c929.52$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.325551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Phillies58c909.48$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.159,86246.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L+40.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Nationals1c880.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.165862%12 W · 574 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals37c810$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.71,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals38c764$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3224547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Phillies64c656$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1673352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Nationals12c634.26$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1160052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals10c620.15$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals24c614.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15039436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Nationals44c608.27$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6431248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Phillies65c560$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19626650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Nationals37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20063252.7%333 W · 299 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals38c513$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9444443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Nationals40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Nationals9c485.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6531547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6f…e87cbacked Phillies61c471.4$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.44647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Nationals37c449.15$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1951347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e3…3464backed Phillies64c407.16$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.164847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Phillies60c400.01$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15283248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Nationals39c396.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.659448.9%46 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nationals41c383.52$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.551,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c4…4493backed Nationals36c354.07$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0717850%89 W · 89 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals39c350$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies65c340.55$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.380955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Nationals38c324.95$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4830850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6926…a128backed Nationals19c315.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Nationals17c299.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5245732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…4345backed Phillies64c288.56$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8818848.4%91 W · 97 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals36c278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals36c257.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.81,05750.4%533 W · 524 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals40c247.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies66c245.3$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.232,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals26c240.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.524,19750.2%2,106 W · 2,091 L+94.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals37c232.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.971,09146.3%505 W · 586 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4891…0165backed Nationals46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nationals5c216.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4547745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Phillies61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7899951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Phillies62c174.19$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1974356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe299…9945backed Phillies61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.932744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Phillies62c161.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.371,40055.1%772 W · 628 L-29.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Phillies64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.161,41548.9%692 W · 723 L-10.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Phillies65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8512355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…42d5backed Phillies71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.856960.9%42 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ed…82c6backed Nationals9c140.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9210441.3%43 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Nationals36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014649.3%72 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0a…643abacked Phillies65c138$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.31566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals37c119.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.631244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Nationals23c116.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9846631.1%145 W · 321 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb39e…5182backed Nationals14c108.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159639.6%38 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Nationals30c100.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Nationals40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Nationals36c97.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Phillies61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9754441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Phillies63c81.84$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2873149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7751…a24cbacked Nationals40c72.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.985945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Phillies61c68.97$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.97445.9%34 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…3237backed Nationals38c66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0816846.4%78 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…e199backed Phillies64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Phillies66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.611,30256.7%738 W · 564 L-1.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Nationals33c59.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7318545.9%85 W · 100 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cc…e776backed Phillies61c50.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.827936.7%29 W · 50 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Phillies64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183,31446.3%1,533 W · 1,781 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Nationals33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4556440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.