AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae8b3f17fec50cc5f05cd2cb6ce8c9bb72cae58b43ecb2282844bf2283b8189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc656…aa88backed No | 17c | 6,999$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 15c | 5,891$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…6a9dbacked No | 10c | 2,133$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…9723backed No | 3c | 1,531$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe389…9e38backed No | 25c | 1,254$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 12c | 1,238$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 1,151$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.39 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 18c | 1,032$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 6c | 997.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 925.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 700.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 645.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 635.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 64c | 553.97$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…4d52backed Yes | 71c | 419.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 413.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 71c | 365$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…382cbacked Yes | 68c | 330.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 323.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 312.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…49d4backed Yes | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 308.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 9c | 307.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 299.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 262.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…6f61backed No | 21c | 247.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 241.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 18c | 236$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 223.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 68c | 219.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 11c | 218.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 22c | 180.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 10c | 155.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 12c | 148.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 13c | 138.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed Yes | 75c | 125.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 17c | 114.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 78c | 98.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 87.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 72.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 16c | 68.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 23c | 63.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa3…4641backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…5285backed Yes | 71c | 62.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…58d1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…42f6backed Yes | 71c | 45.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 66c | 26.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…5411backed Yes | 69c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…23b3backed Yes | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…c2c6backed Yes | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?this page
- Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.